BTC: $78,318
├ 50MA: $71,440 ✅
├ 200MA: $70,222 ✅
├ Realized: $52,778 (MVRV 1.48)
├ STH cost basis: $70,967
├ LTH cost basis: $48,823
├ RSI (weekly): 55.5
├ IBIT cost basis: $81,661
├ MSTR cost basis: $75,385
├ Production cost: $87,470
├ BTC/Gold: 18.3 oz
└ Fear & Greed: 57 (Greed)
ETF 5d -288M$ / 20d +3309M$ · CME fwd 1/5 LONG (mild long tilt) · CLLD 1d -0.45
liq BTC 6m 0.30 3m 0.20 1m 0.33 7d 0.62 (C↓) | ETH 6m 0.07 3m 0.07 1m 0.12 7d 0.37 (B↓) · int ETH 1m↓
CSP / CC(where selling puts / calls is structurally favourable)
Week 72000/82000 Month 70000/85000 Quarter 60000/100000
Weekly
Dealers are long gamma but the weekly cushion is thin (+$5.6M): the flip sits at 77.7k, barely below spot.
Gamma wall and weekly max pain both at 78k — the board is centered on price, an argument for a pin into Friday's expiry. Walls: 82k calls above, 72k puts below.
OI built on both sides last session — 74k below, 81k above: the range is being framed around price, not shifted.
Weekly charm is positive (+$3.4M) — time decay leans supportive into the near expiries.
IBIT agrees on regime (long gamma), with a slightly closer ceiling (~80.5k) and 71.5k support; the notable divergence is IBIT max pain sitting low at 71.5k vs 78k on the BTC board.
Total
Book-wide DEX +$4.7B — dealers net long delta, hedging flows lean supportive. Vega mass (~$23.5M) is sizable but reflects book size, not direction.
Spot trades above the 50/200 MAs (71.4k/70.2k), STH cost basis 71.0k and MSTR basis 75.4k; below IBIT basis 81.7k and production cost 87.5k — price sits mid-sandwich.
Fear & Greed 57, neutral; DVOL 37.8 in the bottom tercile of the year — vol premium is lean, so strikes are best placed at strong levels rather than stretched for yield.
Overall structure favors range: mass on both sides, no extreme tilt.
Week ahead (beta)
72 days of track. Honest check: yesterday's upside trigger fired — reclaim of 77.5–78k played out, 76,974 → 78,318, the sixth range-low buyback of this run; the 76.5–82k range is now 27 days old, spot back at max pain 78k.
Base case: pin 76.4–80.2k around 78k into Friday's expiry (gamma wall + max pain + long gamma + positive charm); nearby liq magnets 79,450/79,900 above, main ceiling unchanged — the 81.7–82.85k node (82k call wall + IBIT basis + high-score zone + 82,850 liq).
Upside trigger: acceptance above 79.9k opens 81–82k. Downside: losing the 77.7k flip risks a slide to 76,350/75,850 liq, with a 75.4k shelf below; 72k put wall is the far line.
Caveats: the gamma cushion is thin and flipped negative below the flip last week — moves near the floor can run wider; standing liquidation skew on longer windows leans down (grade C) — risk context, not a signal.