BTC: $76,974
├ 50MA: $71,193 ✅
├ 200MA: $70,171 ✅
├ Realized: $52,779 (MVRV 1.46)
├ STH cost basis: $70,860
├ LTH cost basis: $48,824
├ RSI (weekly): 54.6
├ IBIT cost basis: $81,661
├ MSTR cost basis: $75,385
├ Production cost: $88,652
├ BTC/Gold: 17.7 oz
└ Fear & Greed: 61 (Greed)
ETF 5d -288M$ / 20d +3309M$ · CME fwd 1/5 LONG (mild long tilt) · CLLD 1d +0.88
liq BTC 6m 0.30 3m 0.20 1m 0.33 7d 0.63 (C↓) | ETH 6m 0.05 3m 0.06 1m 0.09 7d 0.28 (B↓) · int ETH 1m↓
CSP / CC(where selling puts / calls is structurally favourable)
Week 72000/82000 Month 70000/85000 Quarter 60000/100000
Weekly
Book-wide dealers are long gamma, but the weekly slice flipped slightly short (−$7M): spot 76,974 slid below the weekly gamma flip at 77,550 — below it dealer hedging stops dampening moves. Gamma wall sits right at 77k.
Weekly walls: 82k calls / 72k puts, max pain 78k. Fresh OI built at 78k and 76k (floor being pulled toward price) while 81–82k was trimmed.
Weekly charm positive (+$5M) — decay still supportive into Friday.
IBIT board is centered lower: max pain and top OI near 70.3k, calls at ~79.1k — the ETF crowd is positioned more cautiously than Deribit.
Total
Full book: dealers long gamma (+$166M) with large positive net delta (+$3.7B) — hedging leans against moves, buying dips / selling rips. OI-weighted vega ~$23M reflects board size only, no directional read.
Spot sits above MA50/200 (71.2k/70.2k), realized 52.8k, STH basis 70.9k and MSTR basis 75.4k, but below IBIT basis 81.7k and production cost 88.7k.
Fear&Greed 61, DVOL 37.5 in the bottom tercile — vol premium is thin.
Structure reads range-bound: the book pins price between 72k and 82k.
Week ahead (beta)
Honest recap: yesterday's upside trigger (reclaim of the 77.5k flip) failed — 77,377 → 76,974; the 76.5–82k range holds for a 26th day, and this is the 5th floor test of the run (each prior dip got bought).
Base case: a fight for the 75.85–76.2k floor (liq clusters, weight 100) with MSTR basis 75.4k beneath; options price only ~1.9% odds of −10% by Friday, but with weekly gamma slightly short below the flip, swings can run wider.
Upside trigger: reclaiming 77.5–78k (flip + max pain, where OI was built) opens 79.9k, then the 81.9–82.85k node (82k call wall + IBIT basis + liq).
Downside: losing 75.85/75.4k opens 74k, then the 72k put shelf.
Beta forecast: four floor buybacks so far, but each retest erodes it — no high conviction on a fifth.