Options data
Where option dealers are positioned in BTC and ETH, and the price distribution the book implies for the week, the month and the quarter.
Snapshot of the options book as of 8 Nov 2026, 10:00 UTC.
BTC trades at $75 933 and dealers are long gamma, so hedging dampens moves: net gamma exposure $+9.0M, gamma flip at 75 785 (0.2% below spot), max pain 78 000, open interest 337 962 contracts. The nearest expiry (2026-11-09, 1d) carries its call wall at 78 000 and put wall at 75 500. For the week to 2026-11-13 the option book implies a 90% range of 69 422–81 338 around a median of 76 076, at 43.6% implied volatility, with a 13.1% chance of a 5% drop and 12.5% of a 5% rise.
ETH trades at $2 237 and dealers are long gamma, so hedging dampens moves: net gamma exposure $+2.9M, gamma flip at 2 210 (1.2% below spot), max pain 2 300, open interest 1 458 314 contracts. The nearest expiry (2026-11-09, 1d) carries its call wall at 2 280 and put wall at 2 000. For the week to 2026-11-13 the option book implies a 90% range of 1 992–2 453 around a median of 2 240, at 58.8% implied volatility, with a 17.8% chance of a 5% drop and 18.7% of a 5% rise.
Written when this page was built. A new slice is published every hour; the figures below refresh from the latest one when you open the page.
Book state
Deterministic description of the book — what it is, not what to do. One headline per asset; the rows underneath are what that headline is made of.
Gamma exposure by strike
Green = dealers long gamma at that strike (moves get dampened), red = short gamma (moves get amplified).
What the options market prices for the horizon
The distribution the option chain implies for that date; the solid fuchsia line is spot.
Every listed expiry
Expected volatility · BTC and ETH · forecast vs outcome
As of 8 Nov 2026, 01:20 UTC: BTC: options price 39.2% annualized volatility for the next week — a typical move of ±5.4%, and 40.2% (±11.5%) for the next month; the past week realized 38.7%. ETH: options price 53.2% annualized volatility for the next week — a typical move of ±7.4%, and 56.0% (±16.0%) for the next month; the past week realized 52.2%.
| Asset · horizon | Options-implied | Model | Realized, same past span | Forward: options | Forward: model | Backtest: options | Backtest: model |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BTC · 1 day | 27.1% ±1.4% | 27.1% ±1.4% | 12.7% ±0.7% | +8% · 71% 35 windows | -8% · 74% 35 windows | no history | -6% · 74% 1031 windows |
| BTC · 1 week | 39.2% ±5.4% | 35.2% ±4.9% | 38.7% ±5.4% | -2% · 93% 29 windows | -9% · 100% 29 windows | no history | -11% · 76% 1025 windows |
| BTC · 1 month | 40.2% ±11.5% | 39.8% ±11.4% | 34.7% ±9.9% | -6% · 67% 6 windows | -10% · 67% 6 windows | -10% · 74% 1002 windows | -9% · 74% 1002 windows |
| ETH · 1 day | 36.0% ±1.9% | 37.2% ±1.9% | 18.6% ±1.0% | +10% · 74% 35 windows | -14% · 77% 35 windows | no history | -8% · 74% 1031 windows |
| ETH · 1 week | 53.2% ±7.4% | 47.6% ±6.6% | 52.2% ±7.2% | +1% · 83% 29 windows | -9% · 86% 29 windows | no history | -11% · 72% 1025 windows |
| ETH · 1 month | 56.0% ±16.0% | 54.6% ±15.7% | 49.2% ±14.1% | -1% · 33% 6 windows | -6% · 50% 6 windows | -4% · 63% 1002 windows | -9% · 65% 1002 windows |
Latest closed windows
| Window | From | Options | Model | Realized | Price move |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BTC · 1 day | 2026-11-06 | 16.8% | 41.1% | 12.7% | 0.0% |
| ETH · 1 day | 2026-11-06 | 26.6% | 54.3% | 18.6% | +0.1% |
| BTC · 1 day | 2026-11-05 | 49.6% | 46.8% | 43.0% | -0.3% |
| ETH · 1 day | 2026-11-05 | 66.9% | 63.1% | 51.2% | 0.0% |
| BTC · 1 day | 2026-11-04 | 33.8% | 43.9% | 54.2% | -5.6% |
| ETH · 1 day | 2026-11-04 | 44.6% | 63.3% | 70.1% | -8.0% |
| BTC · 1 day | 2026-11-03 | 49.8% | 36.8% | 53.9% | +3.8% |
| ETH · 1 day | 2026-11-03 | 62.3% | 47.9% | 80.2% | +6.4% |
How much BTC and ETH are expected to move over the next day, week and month. Options-implied is the volatility option prices carry for that horizon (for one day the options account for the calendar — weekends are usually quieter than weekdays); model is a forecast from the history of realized volatility together with the options. σ is annualized; ±move is the typical price range over the horizon — roughly two times in three the move stays inside it. Volatility says nothing about direction. The forecast is fixed at 00:00 UTC and never rewritten; once the window closes the realized value is logged. In the record columns the first number is the median bias of the outcome against the forecast (+ means realized ran higher), the second how often the move stayed within ±1σ. Backtest — the same forecasts made retroactively since 2024. No money is traded on it. JSON: volfc_forward.json.
Crash corridor · odds of a 10% drop by the next Friday expiry
As of 8 Nov 2026, 09:56 UTC, the risk-neutral probability of BTC closing below $68,277 (−10% from the $75,863 forward) at the 13 Nov 2026 expiry: between <0.1% and 9.1%; the single smooth-curve estimate is 3.3%; ETH closing below $2,012 (−10% from the $2,235 forward) at the 13 Nov 2026 expiry: between 1.5% and 13%; the single smooth-curve estimate is 6.0%.
A put price is the product of two things: how likely a drop is and how deep it would go. The market quotes the product, not the factors, so a finite set of bids and asks leaves a whole range of price distributions that agree with every quote at once. The corridor is the full range of the risk-neutral probability of closing more than 10% below the forward at the nearest Friday expiry that is consistent with all put bids and asks simultaneously (and robust to dropping any single quote). The smooth-curve point is the one fitted density inside that range. Risk-neutral probabilities are the price of insurance, not a forecast. JSON: crash_frontier.json.
How to read this
- Gamma flip is the price where dealer gamma changes sign. Above it moves tend to get sold into and dampened; below it, hedging amplifies moves.
- Call and put walls are the strikes with the largest open interest — they often act as magnets and as places where a move stalls.
- Max pain is the strike where the largest notional of options expires worthless.
- The density is what the option chain implies, not a forecast: it is risk-neutral, so the tails are fatter than the real-world ones by the volatility risk premium.
- Figures are published as a slice every hour; the page reads the latest one when you open it. Free to read and free to quote with a link back to maza.trade.
Data is generated on a schedule from public market sources and shown as-is. Research product, not investment advice. 18+