BTC: $77,377
├ 50MA: $70,946 ✅
├ 200MA: $70,127 ✅
├ Realized: $52,760 (MVRV 1.47)
├ STH cost basis: $70,869
├ LTH cost basis: $48,825
├ RSI (weekly): 55.2
├ IBIT cost basis: $81,661
├ MSTR cost basis: $75,385
├ Production cost: $87,762
├ BTC/Gold: 17.8 oz
└ Fear & Greed: 63 (Greed)
ETF 5d -288M$ / 20d +3309M$ · CME fwd 1/5 LONG (mild long tilt) · CLLD 1d +0.00
liq BTC 6m 0.30 3m 0.19 1m 0.31 7d 0.73 (C↓) | ETH 6m 0.04 3m 0.04 1m 0.07 7d 0.00 (A+↓) · int ETH 1m↓
CSP / CC(where selling puts / calls is structurally favourable)
Week 72000/82000 Month 70000/85000 Quarter 60000/100000
Weekly
Book is net long gamma, but the weekly slice is borderline: the flip sits at 77.5k right above spot and weekly GEX is slightly negative — pinning is weak, expect wider swings. Weekly gamma mass sits at 77k, right at price.
Weekly walls: calls 82k, puts 72k, max pain 78k. Weekly charm is positive (+3.4M) — decay flow still supportive into Friday.
83% of the session's OI build went above spot (85k/78k/95k) — price pulled back, positioning didn't.
IBIT agrees on regime (long gamma, building above too), but its cap is closer at ~79.6k with the floor near 70.8k — the ETF book is more conservative on upside.
Total
Full-book dealer delta is +$4.1B — dealer hedge flow stays supportive on dips. Book-wide vega mass (~23.5M) mostly reflects board size, not direction.
Spot 77.4k sits above the 50/200 MAs (70.9k/70.1k), STH cost basis 70.9k and realized price 52.8k; MSTR basis 75.4k just below. Overhead: IBIT cost basis 81.7k and production cost 87.8k.
Fear & Greed 63, DVOL at the 17th percentile of the year — vol premium is thin, weak regime for selling vol.
Constructive structure overall: layered support below, but the market isn't paying up for calls above 82k.
Week ahead (beta)
70 days of history. Honest recap: yesterday's upside trigger (hold above 79,950) failed — 79,042 → 77,377; the 76.5–82k range is on day 25, spot back below the weekly flip at 77.5k — fourth floor test of this run (each prior test got bought).
Base case: chop 76,500–82,000 with a fight for the floor — liq clusters 76.8k/76k and the 75.4–75.6k shelf below; options price only ~1.7% odds of a -10% move by Friday — no deep flush priced.
Upside trigger: reclaim the 77.5k flip → 78k (max pain), then liq 79.9k and the 81.1–82.85k node (82k call wall + IBIT basis 81.7k).
Downside trigger: losing 76.0–76.5k flips weekly gamma negative — a slide can accelerate toward 75.4/74.5k, then the 72k put wall (near the weekly q05).
Beta: the buy-the-floor pattern has worked three times, but the weekly gamma cushion is the thinnest of the run — low conviction on the pin.