BTC: $76,480
├ 50MA: $71,711 ✅
├ 200MA: $70,279 ✅
├ Realized: $52,760 (MVRV 1.45)
├ STH cost basis: $70,956
├ LTH cost basis: $48,818
├ RSI (weekly): 54.6
├ IBIT cost basis: $81,653
├ MSTR cost basis: $75,385
├ Production cost: $88,398
├ BTC/Gold: 17.8 oz
└ Fear & Greed: 69 (Greed)
ETF 5d -303M$ / 20d +3526M$ · CME fwd 1/5 LONG (mild long tilt) · CLLD 1d +0.83
liq BTC 6m 0.30 3m 0.20 1m 0.33 7d 0.47 (C↓) | ETH 6m 0.05 3m 0.06 1m 0.08 7d 0.21 (B↓)
CSP / CC(where selling puts / calls is structurally favourable)
Week 72000/79000 Month 70000/85000 Quarter 60000/100000
Weekly
Dealers long gamma into Friday's expiry (weekly GEX +$18M) — dampened swings, pin bias. Weekly flip 75.5k, spot ~1.3% above.
The cap moved in: call/gamma wall slid 82k → 79k, and that's exactly where OI built last session (+5k contracts at 79k, 96% of new OI above spot). Put wall 72k, weekly max pain 78k.
Weekly charm $26.7M (gross); 71% of OI mass sits above spot.
IBIT (same 18 Sep expiry): venues agree on the 79.2k cap, but IBIT's floor sits lower — put wall 70.4k, max pain 73.9k; fresh builds at 77.4–82.7k.
Total
Book-wide dealer delta +$3.7B, total gamma positive (+$201M).
Spot 76.5k sits above realized 52.8k, STH basis 71k, MA50 71.7k, MA200 70.3k; MSTR basis 75.4k right below price, IBIT basis 81.7k overhead, production cost 88.4k caps the upside fundamentally.
F&G 69 (greed), DVOL 39 mid-range — vol premium neutral. Market still in its range, but both the floor and the cap moved toward price this week.
Week ahead (beta)
Day 73. Yesterday's 78k pin didn't hold — 78.3k → 76.5k, the 79.9k upside trigger never fired; 7th test of the range floor in 28 days (previous six got bought).
Base case into Friday's expiry: chop 75.4–79k — liq clusters 75.95/76.35k + zone at 76k + MSTR basis 75.4k below; cap compressed to 79k (call wall slid from 82k, freshly built). Options price only ~1.4% odds of −10% by Friday.
Up trigger: reclaim 78k (max pain + liq 78.05k) → 79k, then 79.6/79.95k liqs.
Down trigger: lose 75.4–75.9k — below the weekly flip gamma turns negative, slide toward 74k and the 71.9–72k shelf (put wall + MA50).
Beta: six floor buybacks argue for a seventh, but the range keeps tightening from both sides — no conviction on break direction.