BTC: $75,584
├ 50MA: $82,047 🔻
├ 200MA: $73,242 ✅
├ Realized: $53,987 (MVRV 1.40)
├ STH cost basis: $75,774
├ LTH cost basis: $48,903
├ RSI (weekly): 48.9
├ IBIT cost basis: $81,739
├ MSTR cost basis: $75,385
├ Production cost: $78,838
├ BTC/Gold: 18.8 oz
└ Fear & Greed: 28 (Fear)
ETF 5d -1513M$ / 20d -975M$ · CME fwd 2/4 LONG (mixed) · CLLD 1d -0.64 · 1d driver: spot ↓
CSP / CC(where selling puts / calls is structurally favourable)
Week 72000/81000 Month 64000/85000 Quarter 60000/90000
Weekly
Book-wide gamma is positive but thin (+7M), and spot 75.6k just slipped under the total flip 75.7k. Weekly slice (Nov 13) is short gamma: flip 78.2k, spot 3.4% below — moves get sharper, no pin at price.
Weekly walls: put wall 74k (largest OI + gamma mass), call wall 81k, max pain 78k. Board is building lower: session OI adds went to 70/72/75/68k, only 27% above spot; OI split 52/48 around price.
Weekly charm 1.9M $/day — collapsed an order of magnitude after the Nov 6 expiry.
IBIT: weekly gamma ~flat, flip 76.2k and put support 76.2k right above spot, max pain 78k, gamma mass 79.7k — same strikes being built (79.7/78/77k, 73% of adds above price), call wall 88.6k.
Divergence: BTC loads puts under price 68–75k, IBIT loads 77–80k above it; both magnets at 78k.
Total
Total DEX 110M — down twentyfold from 2.15B after expiry and the flush, dealer delta hedge nearly neutral (IBIT 137M). Total flip 75.7k coincides with a score-4 zone (STH/MSTR basis, monthly gamma) — spot is on it; book max pain 78k. Vol regime mid — no extra premium.
Week ahead (beta)
Day 125. Honest check: the 74–84k range held at the edge — 79,580 → 75,584 — but the 79–80.3k pin failed: the full downside trigger played out, spot lost 78.8k, flip 77.4k, 77.0k, 75.9k and landed on 75.1–75.8k. Nov 5 session −5.5%, spot-led; week dominated by long liqs, last day by short squeezes. Only CPI was flagged yesterday — it's Nov 10, nothing to verify.
Base case: into Nov 13 a 70,000–81,000 range, core 73–78k — a fight for the 75.0–75.8k node (total flip, STH/MSTR basis, monthly put wall and gamma, quarterly max pain; score-4 zone but already spent) with sharp moves: weekly gamma negative, spot below flip 78.2k, weekly puts being loaded 68–75k. If it holds — drift back to 77–78k (max pain on both venues, IBIT flip 76.2k). CPI Nov 10 is the macro event: vol runs multiples of normal in its hours — scale, not direction, so range and strikes carry extra room. P(−10%) by Nov 13 ~5%, by month ~14% — the tail is priced more than last week. Backdrop leans heavy: ETF outflows 5d/20d with a strong last day; CME mixed with a slight long tilt; DEX down twentyfold; spot below MA50 and miner cost, above MA200 73.2k. Trend flat.
Downside trigger: acceptance below 75k opens 74k (weekly put wall + gamma); break of 74k → 73.2k (MA200), 72k (build), 71.1k (quarterly flip), 70k, then 68k and monthly 64–60k.
Upside trigger: reclaim 75.8–76.2k opens 77–78k (max pain), 78.2k (weekly flip), 78.8k and 79.5–79.7k (IBIT gamma, fresh score 3); 80–81k is the weekly ceiling.
Alt: a CPI wick through 74k with a return to 75–76k by Friday, like after Oct 30. Beta — uncertainty high.