BTC: $75,946
├ 50MA: $81,955 🔻
├ 200MA: $73,242 ✅
├ Realized: $53,995 (MVRV 1.41)
├ STH cost basis: $75,789
├ LTH cost basis: $48,916
├ RSI (weekly): 49.5
├ IBIT cost basis: $81,739
├ MSTR cost basis: $75,385
├ Production cost: $83,187
├ BTC/Gold: 18.7 oz
└ Fear & Greed: 25 (Fear)
ETF 5d -1282M$ / 20d -1408M$ · CME fwd 1/4 LONG (mild long tilt) · CLLD 1d +0.36
CSP / CC(where selling puts / calls is structurally favourable)
Week 72000/81000 Month 70000/85000 Quarter 60000/90000
Weekly
Weekly gamma (Nov 13) negative (−9.0M): spot 75.9k sits below the weekly flip 76.3k — dealer hedging amplifies moves; the full book is still long gamma, but its flip 75.7k is right under price. Weekly walls: call 81k (largest OI 8.3k, then 84k), put 74k — also the gamma wall, so there is still gamma below price. Weekly max pain 78k, 65% of OI above spot. Board is active: last session built 76k at price and 68–70k (protection), 61% of new OI above spot. Weekly charm 12.3M vs 1.9M yesterday — OI mass pulled toward spot on the new series; gross metric, no hedge direction.
IBIT: regime divergence — weekly gamma positive (+11.4M), spot above its flip 74.1k; put wall 75.2k right under price, call wall 79.6k, max pain and gamma wall 77.0k; building 77.0–79.6k. Common ground: both venues' magnets (77–78k) sit above spot.
Total
Book DEX +197M — up from 110M yesterday but 10x below 2.1B on Nov 5: dealers' net delta is near flat, little hedge support. Book flip 75.7k — spot only 0.4% above it, whole-book positive gamma hangs by a thread; book max pain 78k overhead.
Week ahead (beta)
Day 126. Honest check: yesterday's 70–81k range holds — 75,584 → 75,946; base case 'fight for 75.0–75.8k' played out: spot held the node and returned to STH cost basis 75.8k; upside trigger (76.2k) touched, not confirmed. Nov 6 session −0.3%, quiet. Only CPI was flagged yesterday — it's Nov 10, nothing to verify yet.
Base: into Nov 13 range 70,000–81,000, core 73–78k — spot wedged between book flip 75.7k and weekly flip 76.3k: above 76.3k weekly gamma turns positive, moves soften and a drift to magnets 77.0k (IBIT) and 78k (weekly and book max pain, monthly flip 78.1k) opens; below 75.7k the whole book goes short gamma, moves get sharper. Base is 75k holding and a pull toward 77–78k, but the 75.4k node is already spent (score 5), less support left in it. CPI Nov 10 — macro event this week; during its hours volatility runs multiples of normal. Scale, not direction — range and strikes with a buffer. P(−10%) by Friday ~3.6%, by month ~12%. Backdrop weighs: ETF outflows 5d/20d, long liquidations dominate day and week, CME mild long tilt, DEX recovery weak; spot below MA50 and miner cost, above MA200 73.2k. Trend flat.
Downside trigger: acceptance below 75.0k → 74k (weekly put and gamma wall, fresh); break of 74k → 73.2k (MA200), 72k, 70.8k (fresh zone, quarterly flip 71.3k) and 70k (puts being built), then 68k and monthly 64–60k.
Upside trigger: acceptance above 76.3k opens 77.0k, 78k and 78.6k (zone); 79.6k (IBIT call wall) and 80–81k (quarterly gamma mass, weekly call wall) — week's ceiling.
Alternative: CPI spike through 74k with a return to 75–76k by Friday, as after Oct 30; or a push above 76.3k before CPI and a 77–78k pin. Beta — uncertainty high.