BTC: $79,580
├ 50MA: $82,150 🔻
├ 200MA: $73,265 ✅
├ Realized: $54,019 (MVRV 1.47)
├ STH cost basis: $75,903
├ LTH cost basis: $48,521
├ RSI (weekly): 54.8
├ IBIT cost basis: $81,739
├ MSTR cost basis: $75,385
├ Production cost: $78,865
├ BTC/Gold: 19.3 oz
└ Fear & Greed: 50 (Neutral)
ETF 5d -1066M$ / 20d -789M$ · CME fwd 2/4 LONG (mixed) · CLLD 1d +0.99 · 1d driver: spot ↑
CSP / CC(where selling puts / calls is structurally favourable)
Week 74000/82000 Month 72000/90000 Quarter 60000/100000
Weekly
Weekly dealer gamma positive and tripled overnight — spot above the 77.4k flip, moves damped, pin stronger; below 77.4k regime goes short gamma. Spot sits on 79k max pain under the 80k gamma wall (zone 80.1k) — that's where the gamma mass is, a 79–80k pin into tomorrow's expiry is real.
Walls: calls 82k (largest weekly OI, 71% of mass above spot), puts 74k. Yesterday's build was mostly below spot: puts 75.5k, calls 84k and 79.5k; 80k unwound. Weekly charm 73.5M — doubled d/d, OI hugging spot into expiry.
IBIT aligns on regime and flip (77.2k), call wall 81.2k, put wall 75.9k; diverges on the magnet — max pain 77.6k below price. Institutions adding 78.5–80.3k, cutting 74–76k puts.
Total
Book DEX $2.15B — +70% d/d, 5x off the 10/30 low ($0.43B): dealer net delta rebuilding, hedge flipped to buying; IBIT $2.3B same sign. Book flip 76.7k, max pain 78k. DVOL at 15th pctl of the year — vol premium thin.
Week ahead (beta)
Day 124. Honest check: the 74–82k range held — 78,280 → 79,580, base case 'pin 77–80k gravitating to 79k' played out: spot cleared 78.9–79.2k and parked under the 80k gamma. Session 11/04 +3.9%, spot-led; liquidation side was longs (CLLD +0.99). Only CPI was flagged yesterday — that's 11/10, nothing to verify.
Base: into tomorrow's expiry, pin 79–80.3k (max pain 79k, gamma wall 80k, zone 80.1k; IBIT pulls toward 77.6k but is adding 78.5–80.3k) — weekly gamma positive and 3x yesterday, spot above the 77.4k flip, moves soft. Then a new week with a 74,000–84,000 range, padded: CPI 11/10 is a macro event on the week — vol runs multiples of normal in its hours; scale, not direction — range and strikes with margin. P(−10%) by Friday ~0, by month ~12%. Backdrop mixed: ETF 5d/20d outflows with an inflow on the last day, CME mixed with slight long tilt, DEX rising, spot below the 82.1k MA50.
Upside trigger: hold above 80.3k opens 81.2k (IBIT calls) and 81.8–82k (call wall + MA50 + IBIT cost basis + gamma, score 4) — the week's ceiling; 84k (calls built, fresh flip zone) and 85k are mass, not targets.
Downside trigger: losing 78.8k (score 5: mining cost, book max pain 78k) and the 77.4k flip (short gamma, sharper moves) leads to 77.0k, 75.9k (IBIT puts, STH cost basis) and 75.1–75.5k (puts built, quarterly max pain 75k, MSTR cost basis); break of 75k — 74k (put wall), 72k (monthly put wall), 71.5k (quarterly flip).
Alt: rejection at 80k like late October, Friday at 78–79k between both venues' max pain; or a push above 80.3k on rising DEX, testing 82k before CPI. Beta — high uncertainty.