BTC: $78,280
├ 50MA: $82,022 🔻
├ 200MA: $73,221 ✅
├ Realized: $54,059 (MVRV 1.45)
├ STH cost basis: $75,892
├ LTH cost basis: $48,570
├ RSI (weekly): 52.4
├ IBIT cost basis: $81,739
├ MSTR cost basis: $75,385
├ Production cost: $78,859
├ BTC/Gold: 19.4 oz
└ Fear & Greed: 34 (Fear)
ETF 5d -1003M$ / 20d -1351M$ · CME fwd 2/4 LONG (mixed) · CLLD 1d -0.75
CSP / CC(where selling puts / calls is structurally favourable)
Week 74000/82000 Month 70000/90000 Quarter 60000/100000
Weekly
Weekly gamma positive (BTC +$31M, building since Oct 30; IBIT positive too) — moves get dampened, pin strengthens. Weekly flip 77.1k, spot 1.6% above; below it regime turns negative.
Walls: call 82k (largest weekly OI 6.6k + MA50 and IBIT cost basis 81.9k), put 74k. Weekly max pain 79k = gamma wall 79k = score-5 zone (monthly flip 79.1k, build, cost basis) — main magnet into Friday.
76% of weekly OI sits above spot and 78% of last session's OI build went above: 80k (+1.2k), 79–79.5k, 81k — board is building above price, not lagging. Weekly charm $31.4M, up 4 days — OI mass above spot.
IBIT: flip 76.0k, call 78.8k, put 75.3k, max pain and gamma 77.1k; 75% of IBIT build went BELOW spot (75.3k +5.7k, 77.1k, 76.2k). Divergence: BTC pulls toward 79–80k, IBIT anchors 77–79k — 78.8–79k is sticky overhead, 75.3k is the floor.
Total
Book DEX $1.25B, up from $0.80B in a day — rebound after the squeeze to $0.43B on Oct 30: dealers net long delta, hedge not pressing. Book flip 76.7k, max pain 78k — spot sits between; DVOL in bottom tercile, short-vol premium is thin.
Week ahead (beta)
Day 123. Honest check: 74–82k range holds — 77,262 → 78,280; base case (hold flip, return to 78–79k) played out, 75.4k test not needed, spot back at book max pain 78k. Nov 3 session +0.8%, quiet, short-squeeze day. Yesterday's Coinbase discount flag (weaker next day) did not play.
Base case into Nov 6 expiry: pin 77–80k gravitating to 79k (weekly max pain + gamma wall, score-5 zone, monthly flip 79.1k; nearby mining cost 78.9k and IBIT call 78.8k, above that monthly max pain 80k and fresh 80k build). Weekly gamma positive and growing — moves softer; below 77.1k regime flips negative. Weekly range 74,000–82,000 with buffer: CPI Nov 10 is the macro event this week, vol runs multiples of normal in its hours — scale, not direction, and it lands after the Nov 6 expiry, so strikes carry extra room. P(−10%) by Friday <1%, ~12% by month end — tail priced moderately. Backdrop mixed: ETF outflows 5d/20d, CME mixed with slight long tilt, DEX bounced; trend flat.
Upside trigger: acceptance above 79–79.2k opens 80k (monthly max pain, spent zone) and 81.9–82k (call wall + MA50 + IBIT cost basis) — weekly ceiling; 85k is mass, not a target.
Downside trigger: loss of 78k and flip 77.1k (negative gamma, sharper moves) leads to 76.0k (IBIT flip), 75.3–75.9k (IBIT put, STH cost basis) and 75.1k (fresh score-4: monthly put wall and gamma, quarterly max pain, MSTR cost basis); break of 75k targets 74k (weekly put wall), 71.3k (quarterly flip) and 70k.
Alternative: third attempt this week at 78.9–79k fails again, Friday settles 77–78k at IBIT max pain 77.1k. Beta — high uncertainty.