BTC: $77,262
├ 50MA: $81,948 🔻
├ 200MA: $73,203 ✅
├ Realized: $54,025 (MVRV 1.43)
├ STH cost basis: $75,809
├ LTH cost basis: $48,565
├ RSI (weekly): 49.9
├ IBIT cost basis: $81,739
├ MSTR cost basis: $75,385
├ Production cost: $78,861
├ BTC/Gold: 19.5 oz
└ Fear & Greed: 26 (Fear)
ETF 5d -712M$ / 20d -1116M$ · CME fwd 2/4 LONG (mixed) · CLLD 1d -0.82
CSP / CC(where selling puts / calls is structurally favourable)
Week 74000/82000 Month 70000/90000 Quarter 60000/100000
Weekly
BTC weekly gamma still positive but cut from 14.2M to 5.4M overnight — pinning still works, moves softer, but the cushion is thin: flip 76.8k, spot only 0.5% above; below it dealers flip short gamma and moves get sharper.
Walls: 82k call, 74k put; max pain 79k with the gamma mass at 79k — magnet overhead. 79% of OI sits above spot, yet yesterday's adds went below price (puts 73k/72k/74k, plus 78.5k) — board builds under spot while the 82–95k call mass stays; two different things, board isn't lagging.
Weekly charm 25.4M, gross, up a fourth day — OI still parked above spot.
IBIT (same expiry): flip 75.9k, 79.4k call / 75.9k put, max pain 77.6k right at price, adds at 74.1–77.6k — ETF positioning is squeezed around spot while BTC is stretched 74–82k; magnets diverge (79k vs 77.6k), 79k is sticky overhead.
Total
Book DEX 795M — shrinking a second day (970 → 852 → 795M) after the bounce from 434M on Oct 30: dealers net long delta, but the hedge flow isn't growing.
Total flip 75.9k, max pain 78k — spot between them; DVOL mid-range on a 52w basis, no vol-premium bonus.
Week ahead (beta)
Day 122. Honest check: the 74–82k range holds — 78,051 → 77,262, the three-day winning streak snapped: spot gave back book max pain 78k but holds above weekly flip 76.8k with 0.5% to spare; no 80k test. Nov 2 session −2.0%, liquidations that day short-side while the week is long-side. Yesterday's Coinbase discount (next day weaker) — played out.
Base case: into Nov 6, 74,000–82,000 with a 75.5–79k core — a fight for flip 76.8k with a test of the 75.4k node (score 5 fresh: STH/MSTR cost basis, monthly gamma + put wall, quarterly max pain, IBIT put 75.9k); if it holds, drift back to 78–79k (book and weekly max pain, IBIT magnet 77.6k). Weekly gamma positive but down 3x — moves soft for now; below 76.8k regime goes negative, moves sharper; puts being added 72–74k. P(−10%) by Friday ~2%, ~14% on the month. Backdrop leans heavy: ETF outflows 5d/20d, CME mixed, DEX shrinking a second day; trend flat.
Downside caveat: Coinbase net premium in deep discount — US spot demand weaker than the rest of the market; the next day tends to be weaker (a one-day read, not the week). One component down, structure not against it — a 75.4k test in the next 24h slightly likelier, weekly base unchanged. CPI Nov 10 — a macro event this week: vol runs multiples of normal in its hours; scale, not direction, and it falls after the Nov 6 expiry — week range with margin.
Down trigger: acceptance below 75.4k leads to 74k (put wall, being built); break of 74k opens 72k and 70.5k (quarterly flip), then 70k (monthly puts), 64k and 60k.
Up trigger: reclaim 78k and 78.9k (miner cost) opens 79k (max pain + gamma mass), 80k (monthly max pain) and 82k (call wall, MA50, IBIT cost basis) — the week's ceiling.
Alternative: a wick through 75.4k bought back to 78–79k by Friday — puts are being added while the 82–95k call mass isn't being closed.