BTC: $77,534
├ 50MA: $81,955 🔻
├ 200MA: $73,178 ✅
├ Realized: $53,705 (MVRV 1.44)
├ STH cost basis: $75,819
├ LTH cost basis: $48,591
├ RSI (weekly): 51.0
├ IBIT cost basis: $81,739
├ MSTR cost basis: $75,385
├ Production cost: $78,876
├ BTC/Gold: 19.9 oz
└ Fear & Greed: 30 (Fear)
ETF 5d -203M$ / 20d -808M$ · CME fwd 2/4 LONG (mixed) · CLLD 1d -0.81
CSP / CC(where selling puts / calls is structurally favourable)
Week 75000/82000 Month 70000/90000 Quarter 60000/100000
Weekly
Deribit weekly gamma back positive (+13M), spot above flip 76.1k — softer moves than Thursday, stronger pin at gamma strikes; total book positive too (flip 76.7k). Weekly range tightened overnight: call wall 90→82k, put 74→75k, flip 78.5→76.1k slipped under price.
Walls: call 82k = gamma wall (5.9k OI; 81.9k zone score 4: MA50 + IBIT cost basis), put 75k (75.1k zone score 4 fresh: cost basis + flip + gamma + max pain). Max pain 80k above spot (79.9k zone, spent); 82% of weekly OI sits above price. Build weak (+373): puts at 68k/65k/75k and 77k — downside tail hedging, no upside mass added.
Weekly charm 18.3M — gross, up from 6.6M: reflects OI mass above spot, not hedge direction.
IBIT: also positive gamma (flip 74.9k) but tighter: call/gamma 79.2k, put 75.7k, max pain 77.5k — at spot; built 77.5–81k last session. Converge: 75–75.7k floor on both venues; diverge: IBIT ceiling 79.2k vs BTC 82k, IBIT magnet at price, BTC at 80k.
Total
Total-book DEX 682M — up from 434M yesterday but still 3–4x below last week's 2.2–2.6B: dealers' net long delta at a one-month low, hedge is thin. IBIT DEX 864M — bigger than BTC. Total flip 76.7k under spot, max pain 78k above — price between them, book in positive gamma.
Week ahead (beta)
Day 119 of history. Honest check: yesterday's 74–82k range holds — 77,000 → 77,534, but the base-case test of 75.1–75.8k didn't happen: spot bounced and sits between total flip 76.7k and max pain 78k — first up day after a week of sliding from 81.9k. Oct 30 session −0.8%, quiet, day in short squeezes. Yesterday's Coinbase discount (next day weaker) — hit on session, not post-to-post.
Base case: into Nov 6 range 74,000–82,000, center 75–80k — hold 75k, drift to 78–80k (book max pain 78k, weekly 80k, 79.9k zone; IBIT magnet 77.5k at price). Weekly and total gamma back positive, spot above flip 76.1k — softer than Thursday; but cushion over flip is thin, below 76.1k gamma turns negative and moves sharpen. ~4.6% odds of −10% by Friday — tail priced moderately. Backdrop mixed: ETF outflows (5d/20d, heavy last day), CME mixed, month in long liquidations; monthly puts loading at 58k — tail hedge. Trend flat.
Downside caveat: Coinbase net premium in deep discount — US spot demand weaker than the rest of the market; next day tends to be softer (a day, not the week). One component down, structure not against — a retest of 76.7k/75k in the next day slightly likelier, weekly base unchanged.
Downside trigger: acceptance below 76.1k opens 75.8k (STH cost basis) and 75.0k (put wall on both venues, monthly gamma, quarterly max pain, MSTR cost 75.4k); break of 75k targets 70.6k (quarterly flip) and 70k (monthly puts), then 68/65k (weekly puts) and 60k.
Upside trigger: acceptance above 78k (book max pain, monthly flip, miner cost 78.9k) opens 79.2k (IBIT call wall), 80k and 82k — weekly call/gamma wall, MA50, IBIT cost basis; weekly ceiling.
Alternative: pin 77–79k at IBIT max pain into Friday — quiet week after the flush, decision at 75k/82k later.