BTC: $77,975
├ 50MA: $81,979 🔻
├ 200MA: $73,196 ✅
├ Realized: $54,024 (MVRV 1.44)
├ STH cost basis: $75,826
├ LTH cost basis: $48,598
├ RSI (weekly): 52.1
├ IBIT cost basis: $81,739
├ MSTR cost basis: $75,385
├ Production cost: $78,872
├ BTC/Gold: 20.0 oz
└ Fear & Greed: 34 (Fear)
ETF 5d -203M$ / 20d -808M$ · CME fwd 2/4 LONG (mixed) · CLLD 1d -0.41
CSP / CC(where selling puts / calls is structurally favourable)
Week 75000/82000 Month 70000/90000 Quarter 60000/100000
Weekly
Weekly gamma positive and building for a second day (−6.2M Thu → +13.0M → +17.7M); spot above the 76.5k flip — moves damped, pinning firms; below 76.5k gamma goes negative and moves amplify. Put wall 75k (monthly puts too, 75.2k zone score 4 fresh), call wall 82k = gamma wall + MA50 + IBIT cost basis (81.9k zone, tested); weekly max pain 80k (80.0k zone, spent). 82% of weekly OI sits above spot (82/85/90k), but the session's new OI went to 68k/70k (far puts — tail hedge) and 78k at spot; 84k unwound. Weekly charm 21.4M gross, up a second day — reflects OI sitting above spot, not dealer positioning.
IBIT (Friday board, unchanged): also positive gamma, flip 75.2k, put wall 75.7k — downside support lines up with BTC 75k; upside tighter: call wall 79.2k and max pain 77.5k at spot vs 82k/80k on BTC — weekly magnets diverge, 79–80k is sticky.
Total
Total-book DEX +0.97B, up a second day (0.43 → 0.68 → 0.97B) after Thursday's 5x collapse; IBIT 0.86B, comparable. Spot sits on total max pain 78k with the book flip 76.5k below; DVOL 39 is mid-range for the year — average vol premium.
Week ahead (beta)
Day 120. Honest check: the 74–82k range held — 77,534 → 77,975; base case 'hold 75k, drift to 78–80k' is playing out: second green day, spot parked on total max pain 78k under 78.9k miner cost; 75k never got tested. Oct 31 session +0.3%, quiet. Coinbase discount flagged yesterday — didn't play out.
Base case: into Nov 6, 74,000–82,000 range centred 76.5–80k — chop above the flip with a test of 80k (weekly max pain) as the base. Weekly gamma positive and building, spot above the 76.5k flip — softer moves, firmer pin; below 76.5k gamma goes negative and moves amplify. Magnets diverge: BTC 80k above, IBIT 77.5k at spot, IBIT call wall 79.2k — 79–80k is sticky. ~3% odds of −10% by Friday — tail priced modestly; weekly puts added at 68–70k are hedges, not bets. Backdrop mixed: ETF outflows, CME mixed, day and week in short squeezes with the month in long liquidations, DEX rising.
Downside caveat: Coinbase net premium in deep discount — US spot demand weaker than the rest of the market; the next day tends to be softer (a 1-day effect, not weekly). One component down, structure not against — a pullback to 76.5k over the next day is slightly likelier; weekly base unchanged.
Bearish trigger: acceptance below 76.5k opens 75.8k (STH cost, IBIT put wall) and 75.0–75.2k (weekly+monthly put wall, quarterly max pain, MSTR cost; score 4 fresh); break of 75k → 74k and 70.8k (quarterly flip), then 70/68k and 60k.
Bullish trigger: acceptance above 78.9–79.2k opens 80k, then 82k (call wall + gamma mass, MA50, IBIT cost basis) — the weekly ceiling; 85k is mass, not a target.
Alternative: rejection at 79–80k and a drift back to 77.5k (IBIT max pain) into Friday — a pin at spot; spot below MA50 and ETF outflows keep the downside lean alive. Beta.