BTC: $77,000
├ 50MA: $81,965 🔻
├ 200MA: $73,165 ✅
├ Realized: $53,704 (MVRV 1.43)
├ STH cost basis: $75,800
├ LTH cost basis: $48,584
├ RSI (weekly): 51.8
├ IBIT cost basis: $81,739
├ MSTR cost basis: $75,385
├ Production cost: $78,889
├ BTC/Gold: 19.6 oz
└ Fear & Greed: 30 (Fear)
ETF 5d +303M$ / 20d +26M$ · CME fwd 0/4 LONG (all neutral) · CLLD 1d +0.91 · 1d driver: perp ↓
CSP / CC(where selling puts / calls is structurally favourable)
Week 74000/82000 Month 70000/90000 Quarter 60000/100000
Weekly
New board into 06.11. Weekly dealers short gamma (−6.2M), spot 77.0k below flip 78.5k — hedging amplifies moves, weak pin. Call wall 90k, put wall 74k, max pain 80k, gamma mass 82k — 75% of weekly OI sits above spot. Yesterday's build was two-sided near price: 79k, 74k, 78k, 72k (61% of adds above spot) — the board is active, not lagging. Weekly charm +6.6M, consistent with OI mostly above price.
IBIT also short gamma on the week but structured higher: flip 84.2k, put wall 75.6k, call wall 92.1k, max pain 85.7k; heavy build, 78% above spot (81–88k). Venues agree on 74–75.6k support and mass above price, disagree on magnets: BTC 80k vs IBIT 85.7k.
Total
Book DEX +0.43B — down 5x in a day (2.19B yesterday, 3.3B a week ago): dealer hedge nearly unwound. Total flip 77.7k and max pain 78k sit on spot; vol is low (19th pct), short-vol premium is thin.
Week ahead (beta)
Day 118. Honest check: yesterday's 76–85k range held by its edge — 80,327 → 77,000, but the 79.3–81.9k pin failed: the downside trigger fired, spot cut through 80k, the 79.3k node and 78k (book max pain) and landed on total flip 77.7k. Session 29.10 −4.1%, perp-led, long liquidations dominant (CLLD +0.91). Yesterday's ivshock (weaker price over 1–3 days) played out.
Base: into 06.11 expiry a 74,000–82,000 range centered 75–80k — a test of 75.1–75.8k support (STH and MSTR cost basis, monthly gamma and put wall, quarterly max pain; score 3 fresh) with sharp two-way moves: weekly and total gamma negative, spot below flip 78.5k. Below: 74k (put wall, built there) and 72k; above: 78.5k (flip), 78.8k (production cost), 79–80k (max pain, 79k build) and 82k (gamma mass, MA50, IBIT cost basis). P(−10%) by Friday ~6% — tail priced more than last week. Backdrop mixed: ETF 5d inflow, CME neutral, DEX down 5x, IBIT loading 81–88k.
Downside caveat: Coinbase premium in deep discount — US spot demand weaker than the rest of the market; the next day after such readings tends to be softer (a one-day call, not a weekly one). One component down, structure not against — a 75k test in the next day is slightly more likely.
Down trigger: acceptance below 75k opens 74k; a break of 74k → 72k and 70.5k (quarterly flip), then the monthly frame at 64k (puts being built) and 60k.
Up trigger: reclaim 77.7–78.5k opens 80k and 82k; above that 84–85.7k (IBIT max pain), 90k is the weekly ceiling.
Alternative: a bounce back to 80k this week — both venues' magnets sit above price, and spot held 80k for seven days until yesterday. Beta: confidence is low after a −4% day.