BTC: $80,327
├ 50MA: $81,977 🔻
├ 200MA: $73,157 ✅
├ Realized: $53,693 (MVRV 1.50)
├ STH cost basis: $75,781
├ LTH cost basis: $48,608
├ RSI (weekly): 54.4
├ IBIT cost basis: $81,740
├ MSTR cost basis: $75,385
├ Production cost: $78,896
├ BTC/Gold: 19.9 oz
└ Fear & Greed: 51 (Neutral)
ETF 5d -350M$ / 20d +111M$ · CME fwd 0/4 LONG (all neutral) · CLLD 1d -0.39
CSP / CC(where selling puts / calls is structurally favourable)
Week 78000/85000 Month 70000/90000 Quarter 60000/100000
Weekly
Weekly gamma negative (−$9.2M) while the total book is long gamma (+$74.8M): spot sits right on the weekly flip at 80,333 — the sign flips on every tick, moves get sharper below it. Gamma mass at 80k directly under price — pinned there for a 7th day into tomorrow's expiry. Weekly walls are far: calls 95k (mass, not a target), puts 70k; max pain 78k. Board is unwinding (OI −521): puts 70/71/64k and 79k taken off, nothing added above spot — that's a wind-down, not a rebuild. Weekly charm $12.5M (yesterday $20.4M): 62% of OI sits above spot, 44% of gamma.
IBIT: weekly flip 81.9k above spot, gamma near zero; biggest adds — 79.1k puts (+1,979) and 83.6k (IBIT max pain), 86.3k/89.9k calls being unwound. Magnets split: BTC pulls to 78k, IBIT to 83.6k; IBIT's 79.1k support sits next to our 79.3k node (score 6).
Total
Book DEX $2.19B — down 15% on the day (2.13 → 2.57 → 2.19B): dealers still net long hedge, but the cushion is thinning. Total flip 79.1k and max pain 78k below spot; DVOL 35.9 at the 9th percentile of the year — sold vol pays poorly, CSP/CC premium is thin.
Week ahead (beta)
Day 117 of history. Honest check: yesterday's 75–85k range held — 80,694 → 80,327, base 80–82k pin played out on its lower edge: spot at the 80k gamma for a 7th day, back on the 80.3k flip; FOMC passed quietly — session 10/28 +0.5%, quiet. Yesterday's Coinbase discount (next day weaker) did not play on the session, though post-to-post it's −0.5%.
Base case: into tomorrow's expiry a pin 79.3–81.9k between two fresh nodes (79.3k score 6: book flip + gamma + max pain + OI + cost basis; 81.9k score 5: MA50 + IBIT cost basis + gamma + magnet); weekly range 76,000–85,000, center 78–82k. Weekly gamma negative, spot on the flip — sharp moves both ways, but the board is unwinding, not building; IBIT's 79.1k support and 83.6k magnet prop it from above. P(−10%) by 11/27 ~14% — tail priced, moderately. Backdrop flat: light short squeezes on the day, neutral week; ETFs +1 day with 5d outflow; CME neutral; DEX shrank.
Downside caveat: implied vol fell three straight days beyond what price explains — after such runs price tends to be softer over 1–3 days (lagged adjustment). One component down, structure not against it — a 79.3k/78k test in the coming days a bit more likely, not a weekly call. Slow trend up with spot below MA50 82k — a caveat against.
Downside trigger: acceptance below 80k opens 79.3k, 79.1k (IBIT puts) and 78k (weekly + total max pain, fresh zone); break of 78k targets 75.2k (monthly put wall + quarterly max pain + MSTR cost basis, score 3; puts being built 72–76k), then 70k.
Upside trigger: acceptance above 81k (monthly max pain) and 81.9k opens 83.1–83.6k (IBIT max pain), 85k (monthly gamma) and 86.3k (IBIT calls); 90k monthly ceiling, 95k is mass, not a target.
Alternative: on the fresh board after expiry a poke through 78k with a return to 80k — the 78–79.3k node hasn't been tested in a week of drifting.