BTC: $80,694
├ 50MA: $81,950 🔻
├ 200MA: $73,113 ✅
├ Realized: $53,573 (MVRV 1.51)
├ STH cost basis: $74,865
├ LTH cost basis: $48,720
├ RSI (weekly): 56.3
├ IBIT cost basis: $81,740
├ MSTR cost basis: $75,385
├ Production cost: $78,891
├ BTC/Gold: 19.9 oz
└ Fear & Greed: 51 (Neutral)
ETF 5d +41M$ / 20d -175M$ · CME fwd 0/4 LONG (все нейтральны) · CLLD 1d -0.67
CSP / CC(where selling puts / calls is structurally favourable)
Week 75000/85000 Month 70000/90000 Quarter 60000/100000
Weekly
Deribit weekly gamma back to positive (+12M vs −11M yesterday), spot above flip 80.3k — softer moves, pin at the 80k gamma mass firmer; FOMC today though, event hours override pins.
Weekly walls sit far: call 95k, put 70k — tail mass, not 2-day levels. The working frame is IBIT: put wall 77.1k, call/gamma wall 84.2k, max pain 81.5k; BTC max pain 78k.
BTC board builds above spot: 85% of new OI at 82.5k/83k/85k, 65k puts closed. IBIT added 80.7k/81.5k/82.4k, closed 77.1k puts — both venues stack above price, not below.
Weekly charm 20.4M (5.3M yesterday) — decay weight rising into expiry, no direction in it.
IBIT vs BTC: regime and flips agree (80.3k/79.6k below spot), magnets split: 78k BTC below, 81.5k IBIT above.
Total
Whole-book DEX 2.57B, up a second day (1.94 → 2.13 → 2.57B) but still below 3.3–4.5B of Oct 20–23. Total flip 78.7k and max pain 78k (IBIT 77.7k/78.9k) anchor the book below spot; DVOL in the bottom tercile of the year — thin premium for sold vol.
Week ahead (beta)
Day 116. Honest check: yesterday's 75–85k range holds — 80 115 → 80 694, sixth day around the 80k gamma, now above flip 80.3k; 78–78.8k node still untested, no triggers hit. Oct 27 session +0.9%, quiet. Yesterday's Coinbase discount (weaker next day) did not play out — day closed up; FOMC is today.
Base case: into Oct 30, range 75 000–85 000, center 78–83k — pin 80–82k: weekly gamma positive, spot above flip, IBIT loading 80.7–82.4k, BTC 82.5–85k; magnets split (78k BTC, 81.5k IBIT). FOMC Oct 28 is the week's macro event — vol multiples higher in its hours; scale, not direction — range and strikes with buffer. P(−10% by Friday) ~0.5% — no dump priced. Backdrop: day and week liquidations are short squeezes, ETF 5d inflow vs 20d outflow, CME neutral, DEX rising.
Downside caveat: Coinbase premium in deep discount — US spot demand weaker than the rest of the market; the next day after this is weaker on average (1-day, not weekly). One component down, structure not against — a 1-day tilt, not a weekly call. Slow trend still up with spot under MA50 — caveat against.
Down trigger: hold below 80k/flip 80.3k (gamma flips negative, moves sharpen) targets 78.8k (score 4 fresh: book flip + max pain 78k + miner cost) and 77.1k (IBIT put wall); break of 78k → 75.0k (monthly put wall + quarterly max pain + MSTR cost), then 72k (puts being built) and 70k.
Up trigger: hold above 81–81.5k (monthly max pain, IBIT max pain) and 82k (MA50 + IBIT cost basis) opens 82.5–83k, 84.2k (IBIT call wall) and 85k; 90k is the monthly cap, 95k is mass, not a target.
Alt: FOMC wick through an edge (78k or 83k) with a return to 80–82k by Friday — as on past macro days.