BTC: $83,079
├ 50MA: $80,951 ✅
├ 200MA: $72,014 ✅
├ Realized: $53,295 (MVRV 1.56)
├ STH cost basis: $73,845
├ LTH cost basis: $48,832
├ RSI (weekly): 58.6
├ IBIT cost basis: $81,732
├ MSTR cost basis: $75,385
├ Production cost: $74,365
├ BTC/Gold: 19.8 oz
└ Fear & Greed: 61 (Greed)
ETF 5d -512M$ / 20d +1918M$ · CME fwd 1/4 LONG (mild long tilt) · CLLD 1d -0.95
CSP / CC(where selling puts / calls is structurally favourable)
Week 78000/90000 Month 70000/95000 Quarter 60000/100000
Weekly
Regime: total book positive gamma, but the Deribit weekly slice is short gamma (−$19M) with spot below the 84.65k flip — intraweek moves run sharper, a clean pin isn't the base case; IBIT weekly is long gamma with mass at 83.4k and dampens a bit.
Weekly walls: call 90k, put 80k; max pain 83k right on spot, BTC gamma mass there too. OI +19 on the session, three quarters of it above spot: built 85k (+28) and 81k (+9), unwound 83k and 75k — the board's mass sits at 80/78k, but it's being built upward; two different things.
Weekly charm −$5.9M (gross: reflects OI sitting mostly below spot).
IBIT vs BTC: aligned at the floor — IBIT put wall 79.9k vs 80k; split at the center — IBIT max pain 79.9k vs 83k, call wall 88.8k vs 90k. Both venues cap at 88–90k.
Total
Total-book DEX $3.91B — up a third day (3.25 → 3.74 → 3.77 → 3.91B), dealers net long hedge, still well below early-October $6B. Total flip 79.4k and max pain 79k sit below spot; vol at the 19th pct of the year — thin premium for vol sellers.
Week ahead (beta)
Day 99 of history. Honest check: yesterday's 79.5–88k range holds — 82,780 → 83,079, spot sits on 83k max pain, no triggers fired; Oct 10 session +0.4%, quiet. Yesterday's Coinbase-discount signal (next day weaker) didn't play out — day closed green; CPI still ahead.
Base case: into the Oct 16 expiry a 79,500–88,000 range centered 81–85k — chop with a risk of an edge poke on Wednesday. CPI Oct 14 is a macro event: vol runs multiples of normal in those hours; range and strikes set with a buffer, no direction from it. Deribit weekly gamma negative, spot below the 84.65k flip — sharper moves; IBIT gamma at 83.4k props a pin near 83k. Below: the 80k node (put wall + gamma + max pain + OI, score 3, fresh; MA50 81k, IBIT support 79.9k), then 79.2k (flip + max pain) and 78k (puts, weekly 5% floor); above: 84.7k (flip), 85k (fresh OI), 86.4k (spent zone), 88.1–89k (fresh zones + IBIT call wall) and 90k — the cap. Options price ~1.4% for −10% by Friday — no dump priced. Backdrop favors chop: liquidations are short squeezes day and week (CLLD −0.95/−0.57), ETFs net outflow over 5d, DEX up three days.
Downside trigger: a close below 80k opens 79.2k and 78k, then 76k and the monthly frame (max pain 78k, put wall 70k).
Upside trigger: reclaim 84.7–85k opens 86.4–88k; above 90k there's no air on the weekly.
Alternative: a CPI poke through one edge with a return into 81–85k; the 82–87k shelf is in its 16th day, spot in its lower third, both venues building symmetrically — structure sets no direction. Beta.