BTC: $82,780
├ 50MA: $80,827 ✅
├ 200MA: $71,955 ✅
├ Realized: $53,313 (MVRV 1.55)
├ STH cost basis: $73,897
├ LTH cost basis: $48,829
├ RSI (weekly): 58.2
├ IBIT cost basis: $81,732
├ MSTR cost basis: $75,385
├ Production cost: $74,366
├ BTC/Gold: 19.8 oz
└ Fear & Greed: 64 (Greed)
ETF 5d -512M$ / 20d +1918M$ · CME fwd 1/4 LONG (mild long tilt) · CLLD 1d -0.55
CSP / CC(where selling puts / calls is structurally favourable)
Week 78000/90000 Month 70000/95000 Quarter 60000/100000
Weekly
Deribit weekly gamma is negative (−$21M) with spot below the 84.7k flip — sharper intraday moves, no clean pin; IBIT on the same expiry is long gamma (+$67M) with its gamma mass at 83.2k, which dampens a bit.
Weekly walls: put wall 80k (OI 2.3k, 78k below it), call wall 90k; max pain 83k and gamma mass 83k sit right on spot. BTC OI barely grew (+27): puts added at 79k/80k, calls at 86k. Weekly charm −4.3M, sign driven by OI mass below spot.
IBIT: put wall and max pain 79.7k, call wall 88.5k; heavy build at 79.7k, 84.1k, 86.8k and far 67.3k. Both venues agree on 79.7–80k support and an 88.5–90k ceiling; they diverge on max pain (79.7k vs 83k) and on weekly gamma sign.
Total
Book-wide DEX +$3.77B — dealers net long delta; flat day over day (3.74B) but half of a week ago (6.0B on Oct 6): the hedge cushion has thinned. Total gamma positive (+$148M), flip 80.1k — above it the aggregate regime still dampens moves.
Week ahead (beta)
98 days of history. Honest check: yesterday's 79.5–88.5k range holds — 82,816 → 82,780, spot parked on 83k max pain, no triggers hit; Oct 9 session +1.1%, quiet. Yesterday's IV-shock signal (bounce to 84–85k within 1–3 days) hasn't played out yet — flat day; CPI still ahead.
Base case: into the Oct 16 expiry, 79,500–88,000 range with an 81–85k core. Deribit weekly gamma negative below the 84.7k flip — moves get sharper; IBIT long gamma at 83.2k leans toward a pin near 83k. Below: the 79.9–80k node (put wall + gamma + max pain + OI, score 4, fresh; MA50 80.8k, IBIT support 79.7k), then 78k (puts, weekly 5th-percentile edge). Above: 84.5–84.7k (flip + fresh zone), 86–86.8k (built on both venues), 88.5k (IBIT call wall) and 90k as the ceiling. −10% by Friday priced ~1.7% — no crash priced. Backdrop: liquidations skew to short squeezes day and week (CLLD −0.55/−0.68), ETF 5d outflow; vol at the 18th percentile of the year.
Caveats: Coinbase premium in deep discount — US spot demand weaker than the rest of the market, next-day returns tend to be softer (a one-day read, not a weekly target). CPI Oct 14 — vol multiples higher in its hours, range and strikes set wide, no directional read. Slow trend still up, against the day's pressure. One component down, structure gives no direction: base is chop with risk of an 80k test early in the week.
Downside trigger: acceptance below 80k opens 79.1k (flip + max pain) and 78k (monthly max pain, where puts are being built), then 76k.
Upside trigger: reclaim 84.7–85k opens 86–88.5k; little air above 90k on the weekly board.
Alt: a CPI wick through an edge with a return into 81–85k; the 82–87k shelf is 16 days old, spot at its lower end. Beta.