BTC: $82,816
├ 50MA: $80,736 ✅
├ 200MA: $71,893 ✅
├ Realized: $53,290 (MVRV 1.55)
├ STH cost basis: $73,864
├ LTH cost basis: $48,789
├ RSI (weekly): 58.0
├ IBIT cost basis: $81,732
├ MSTR cost basis: $75,385
├ Production cost: $74,371
├ BTC/Gold: 19.8 oz
└ Fear & Greed: 59 (Greed)
ETF 5d -512M$ / 20d +1918M$ · CME fwd 1/4 LONG (mild long tilt) · CLLD 1d -0.91
CSP / CC(where selling puts / calls is structurally favourable)
Week 78000/90000 Month 70000/95000 Quarter 60000/100000
Weekly
Gamma: positive overall, but the Oct-16 weekly slice on Deribit is negative (−$20M) and spot sits below the 84,950 weekly flip — sharper intraday swings, no pin expected; IBIT's weekly is positive (+$62M) with gamma mass at 82.8k right on spot, which dampens a bit.
Weekly walls: call 90k, put 80k; max pain 83k on spot. BTC gamma mass sits at 80k (zone 79.9k, score 3, plus MA50 80.7k). Session OI build was two-sided: 78k (+753), 85k (+431), 76k, 87k — 44% of adds above spot.
Weekly charm −$2.6M (gross): sign reflects OI sitting slightly below spot, not dealer positioning.
IBIT: support 79.2k (put wall = max pain), ceiling 88k, built 85.4k / 81k / 78.4k / 82.8k; on the 42-DTE slice +20k contracts at 84.5k (84% of adds above spot), while Deribit's monthly unwound 88k (−914) and added puts at 65–70k. Venues agree on levels (78–80k below, 88–90k above), disagree on weekly gamma sign and tone: IBIT builds higher, Deribit lower.
Total
Book DEX $3.74B: after 6.2B (Oct 2) → 3.9B (Oct 7) → 3.25B (Oct 8), first uptick — dealer delta hedge bled for three days, slightly rebuilt today. Total flip 79.1k and max pain 79k below spot; DVOL at the 17th percentile of the year — thin premium for sold vol.
Week ahead (beta)
Day 97 of history. Honest check: yesterday's fight at 81–82k held — 82,436 → 82,816, the 81k node wasn't lost, but no pull to max pain 84k either: Oct-9 expiry passed at 82.8k, no triggers fired. Yesterday's Coinbase-discount flag (next day weaker) didn't play out — day closed up; CPI still ahead.
Base case: on the new Oct-16 board a 79,500–88,500 corridor, widened for CPI Oct 14 — vol runs several times normal in those hours, no direction from it. Deribit weekly gamma is negative with spot below the 84.95k flip — moves sharper, a clean pin unlikely; IBIT gamma at 82.8k softens that. Below: 80k node (put wall + gamma mass + zone 79.9k score 3, MA50 80.7k) and 81.6k (IBIT cost basis); above: max pain 83k on spot, flip 84.95k and fresh 85k OI, then 87–88k (built, IBIT call wall 88k, zone 88.6k) and 90k as the ceiling. The board prices ~2.7% for −10% by Friday — more than recent weeks, but a flush isn't base.
Upside caveat: implied vol rose three days running beyond what price explained; after such runs price more often drifted up over the next 1–3 days — that's about a revisit of 84–85k early in the week, not a weekly target. Backdrop mixed: liquidations flipped to short squeezes on the day, week still long-liq heavy; ETF 5d flows negative.
Downside trigger: a close below 80k opens 79.1k (flip + max pain) and 78k (monthly max pain + flip 78.4k, puts being built), then 76k.
Upside trigger: reclaim 84.9–85k opens 87–88k; above 90k the week has little air.
Alt: a CPI poke through either edge with a return into 81–85k; the 82–87k range is on day 15 with spot at its floor. Beta.