BTC: $82,436
├ 50MA: $80,567 ✅
├ 200MA: $71,840 ✅
├ Realized: $53,247 (MVRV 1.55)
├ STH cost basis: $73,605
├ LTH cost basis: $48,755
├ RSI (weekly): 58.3
├ IBIT cost basis: $81,732
├ MSTR cost basis: $75,385
├ Production cost: $74,363
├ BTC/Gold: 20.0 oz
└ Fear & Greed: 64 (Greed)
ETF 5d -166M$ / 20d +1879M$ · CME fwd 1/4 LONG (mild long tilt) · CLLD 1d +0.98 · 1d driver: perp ↓
CSP / CC(where selling puts / calls is structurally favourable)
Week 80000/88000 Month 70000/95000 Quarter 60000/100000
Weekly
Weekly gamma is negative: net GEX −$45M vs −$20M yesterday — no pin into tomorrow's 09.10 expiry, moves get amplified. Flip 84.2k lost; max pain 84k (IBIT 83.9k) sits above spot and pulls up into expiry. Walls: call 90k, put 81k — same floor on IBIT (81.2k), where 13k contracts were added last session; gamma mass 82k right at spot (IBIT 83.0k). Deribit OI built at 82.5k, 81k, 83k — around price, 62% of adds above spot: the board is wrapping spot, not sliding under it. Weekly charm −$16.3M vs −$3.2M yesterday — last-day decay 5x larger; sign reflects where OI sits vs spot, not dealer hedging. Weekly put wing rich (1.18x ATM). IBIT and BTC agree: both short-gamma for the week, same 81k floor and 84k magnet; IBIT cap lower at 88.3k vs 90k. IBIT 16.10 slice (8 DTE, covers CPI): floor 79.4k, cap 88.3k, adds at 75.9k and 88.3k.
Total
Total-book DEX $3.25B, third day down: $6.1B (05.10) → $6.0B → $3.9B → $3.25B — dealer net delta halved, hedge demand for spot fading. Total flip 80.0k / max pain 80k: book is long gamma only above 80k; vol at the 33rd pct of the year, short-vol premium thin.
Week ahead (beta)
96 days of history. Honest check: yesterday's 81–85.5k chop holds — 83,268 → 82,436, spot in the lower third, no trigger hit; the −2.6% day was perp-driven. Yesterday's CPI flag is still ahead — nothing to score yet.
Base case: into tomorrow's expiry, a fight at 81–82k with a pull toward max pain 84k — short gamma, sharper intraday swings; below, the 81k put wall (BTC + IBIT, built there) + IBIT cost basis 81.7k + gamma mass 82k; above, flip 84.2k. For the week, 79.6–88.5k with a test of the lower edge: liquidations are long-side (CLLD +0.98/+0.92), ETF flows turned negative. New board: 95k mass above, 70k below, median ~82.2k, ~11% odds of −10% over the month.
Caveats: Coinbase premium in deep discount — US spot demand weaker than the rest of the market, the next day tends to be softer (a one-day note, not a weekly call). CPI 14.10 — vol runs multiples of normal in those hours; wider range and strikes, no direction from it. Slow trend still up — against this week's pressure.
Downside trigger: a hold below 81k opens 80k/79.6k (score-4 zone: flip + gamma + max pain + OI, with MA50 80.6k and the weekly 5% tail); a break targets 78k (monthly max pain + flip 77.5k, puts building there), then 75k.
Upside trigger: reclaim 84–84.4k and the 86–88k shelf is back; 88.1–88.5k (zone + IBIT call wall) and 90k cap it.
Alternative: pin 82–84k into expiry and a false break of 81k that reverses; the 82–87k shelf is 14 days old, spot a second day near its floor. Beta.