BTC: $83,268
├ 50MA: $80,311 ✅
├ 200MA: $71,769 ✅
├ Realized: $53,234 (MVRV 1.56)
├ STH cost basis: $73,468
├ LTH cost basis: $48,741
├ RSI (weekly): 59.8
├ IBIT cost basis: $81,726
├ MSTR cost basis: $75,385
├ Production cost: $74,345
├ BTC/Gold: 20.3 oz
└ Fear & Greed: 71 (Greed)
ETF 5d +173M$ / 20d +2246M$ · CME fwd 1/4 LONG (mild long tilt) · CLLD 1d +0.73
CSP / CC(where selling puts / calls is structurally favourable)
Week 80000/90000 Month 70000/95000 Quarter 60000/100000
Weekly
Regime: total book long gamma, but the Oct 9 weekly slice flipped short (−$20M): spot 83.3k sits under the weekly flip 84.4k — with 2 DTE, intraday moves get amplified rather than pinned. Weekly gamma mass at 82k (OI 81–82k); call wall 90k above, put wall 81k below, max pain 84k — yesterday's support is now resistance. OI split 50/50 around spot; session OI change ~flat (−98): small adds at 85.5k/84.5k, trims at 85k and 90k — tweaks, not a rebuild. Weekly charm −$3.2M (gross, sign reflects OI sitting below spot).
IBIT: weekly still long gamma (+$12M), flip 82.6k below spot, put wall 82.4k, call wall 87.7k, max pain 83.3k right on spot; +13k contracts on the session, 84% above spot — built 87.7k, 85k, 89.5k. Venues diverge: Deribit short gamma on the week with mass below price, IBIT long gamma and stacking calls above it.
Total
Book DEX $3.9B vs $6.0B yesterday and $6.1B the day before — dealer net delta cut by a third along with spot, hedge is lighter. Total flip 78.1k and max pain 80k well below price: whole book still long gamma, no downside acceleration priced.
Week ahead (beta)
Day 95 of history. Honest: yesterday's 84.5–88.5k pin failed — 86,206 → 83,268; the downside trigger (lose 86k/85k → flip 84.8k, max pain 84k) hit and cut straight through, spot landing on the tested 83.7k zone and IBIT max pain 83.3k. Third upside attempt failed — the alt flagged it. No components fired yesterday — nothing to check.
Base case: into Oct 9 expiry (2 DTE) chop 81,000–85,500 under the lost flip — Deribit weekly gamma is negative, so intraday swings are sharper; support node = put wall 81k + IBIT cost basis 81.7k + gamma mass 82k, resistance = flip 84.4k / max pain 84k. Into Friday, max pain 84k and IBIT 83.3k pull back toward 83–84k. Board prices ~0.5% odds of −10% by Friday — no dump priced. Backdrop leans heavy: liquidations skew to longs day and week (CLLD +0.7/+0.9), ETF inflows near stall.
Downside trigger: a hold below 81k opens 80k (MA50 + gamma + max pain, score 3) and 79.2k (flip + max pain + OI, score 3); through 79k → 78k and the monthly frame, where puts are being built at 63–69k with the put wall at 70k.
Upside trigger: reclaim 84.4–85k returns to the 86–88k shelf; above that 88.1k (score-3 zone, IBIT call wall 87.7k) and 90k cap.
Next week: CPI Oct 14 — macro event, volatility runs several times normal in those hours; next week's range and strikes get extra buffer, no direction read. Caveats: the 82–87k shelf is on day 13, spot now in its lower half; slow trend still up — against this week's pressure. Beta.