BTC: $85,273
├ 50MA: $73,637 ✅
├ 200MA: $70,603 ✅
├ Realized: $52,793 (MVRV 1.62)
├ STH cost basis: $71,262
├ LTH cost basis: $48,787
├ RSI (weekly): 60.8
├ IBIT cost basis: $81,636
├ MSTR cost basis: $75,385
├ Production cost: $87,381
├ BTC/Gold: 19.7 oz
└ Fear & Greed: 70 (Greed)
ETF 5d +6M$ / 20d +1762M$ · CME fwd 2/5 LONG (смешанно) · CLLD 1d -0.97
liq BTC 6m 0.03 3m 0.01 1m 0.02 7d 0.20 (A↓) | ETH 6m 0.03 3m 0.03 1m 0.07 7d 0.18 (A↓) · int BTC↓ ETH↓
CSP / CC(where selling puts / calls is structurally favourable)
Week 80000/90000 Month 75000/95000 Quarter 60000/100000
Weekly
Positive gamma, weekly GEX +$233M — dealer hedging dampens swings. Flip sits way down at 72.3k while spot trades right on the 85k call/gamma wall — that's where the gamma mass is, a pin candidate into Sep 25 expiry.
Max pain 74k, but flows matter more: last session built 84k/85k/83k — the board is stacking right at price, though only 26% of OI sits above spot.
Weekly charm −$65.6M — sign simply reflects OI left below spot after the rally, no hedge-direction read.
IBIT runs a higher structure: floor 80.2k, flip 79k, cap 89.5k — its floor sits much closer to price than Deribit's 70k put wall, while both venues agree on the 85–90k ceiling.
Total
Book-wide DEX +$10.7B — dealers net long delta, largest of the run (~$3.7B a week ago). Spot is above the 50/200 MAs (73.6k/70.6k), STH basis 71.3k and IBIT basis 81.6k; the only slow-metric level overhead is miner production cost at 87.4k.
Fear&Greed 70; DVOL 37 at the 18th percentile — vol premium is thin, historically the weakest regime for premium sellers.
Big picture: positive gamma across tenors, and the monthly board is building higher — 89% of new OI above spot, concentrated at 95–100k. Ceilings are migrating with price.
Week ahead (beta)
79 days of history. Yesterday's upside trigger fired with room to spare — 80,658 → 85,272, through 81.6k and 82.85k straight into the weekly 85k call wall; third impulse leg since the 76.5–82k range broke.
Base case: consolidation 83,000–87,400 around 85k — positive gamma plus the gamma mass at that strike favor pinning; weekly option-implied median (~85.4k) matches spot, and a −10% move by Friday is priced at only ~3%.
Upside trigger: acceptance above 86.5k and the 87.4k production cost opens 90k (monthly gamma wall + heavy OI).
Downside trigger: losing the 83.7k zone points to liq clusters 82.85/82.45k, then 80.5/79.95k.
Caveats: standing liquidation skew is still grade-A to the downside (long leverage below price), and three straight impulse days stretch the pace — beta forecast, moderate confidence.