BTC: $86,130
├ 50MA: $74,151 ✅
├ 200MA: $70,709 ✅
├ Realized: $52,822 (MVRV 1.63)
├ STH cost basis: $71,295
├ LTH cost basis: $48,786
├ RSI (weekly): 62.9
├ IBIT cost basis: $81,636
├ MSTR cost basis: $75,385
├ Production cost: $87,820
├ BTC/Gold: 19.9 oz
└ Fear & Greed: 78 (Extreme Greed)
ETF 5d +845M$ / 20d +2454M$ · CME fwd 2/5 LONG (смешанно) · CLLD 1d -0.58 · 1d driver: perp ↑
liq BTC 6m 0.04 3m 0.04 1m 0.08 7d 0.00 (A+↓) | ETH 6m 0.04 3m 0.04 1m 0.08 7d 0.00 (A+↓) · int BTC↓ ETH↓
CSP / CC(where selling puts / calls is structurally favourable)
Week 80000/90000 Month 75000/95000 Quarter 60000/100000
Weekly
Long gamma on both venues, BTC weekly GEX +$171M — dealer hedging dampens swings. Weekly flip at 74.2k, far below spot; walls at 90k/70k, but the gamma mass sits at 85k with spot right above it — that's the likely pin, not max pain 75k (which rests on legacy OI below: only ~25% of weekly OI is above spot).
Session flows: BTC built 79k and 87k, unwound 70k and 90k — fresh interest is catching up to price. Weekly charm −$83M, sign driven by OI sitting below spot.
IBIT agrees: long gamma, gamma mass 85.1k, call wall 88.6k — and it built above spot far more aggressively (83.3k/86.9k), the ETF leg is repositioning faster.
Total
Total book DEX +$11.3B — dealer net delta at the run's high (vs $10.7B yesterday).
Spot 86.1k sits above the 50/200 MAs (74.2k/70.7k), STH basis (71.3k) and IBIT basis (81.6k), but still below production cost at 87.8k — right overhead, next to a fresh 88.1k confluence node.
Fear & Greed 78; DVOL 38 in the bottom third of its 1y range — vol premium on offer is modest.
Structurally the market trades in the upper part of the options map: meaningful OI above spot only on the monthly (62%, walls 95k/70k).
Week ahead (beta)
80 days of track. Honest check: yesterday's base case (83–87.4k consolidation around 85k) is holding — 85,273 → 86,130, spot in the upper half; the 86.5k trigger technically fired but the 87.8k production-cost node hasn't been cleared.
Base case into the Sep 25 expiry (3 DTE): chop 84,500–88,100 anchored on the 85k gamma mass — long gamma, liq clusters 85,050/84,600 (weight 100) right below spot, fresh 88.1k confluence node above (production cost + gamma + OI).
Upside trigger: acceptance above 88.1k opens liq 88,950 and the weekly call wall at 90k.
Downside trigger: losing 84.6k points to liq 82,850, deeper — the 79.9–80k shelf (tested zone + weight-100 liq).
Caveats: standing liquidation leverage sits almost entirely below price (grade A+), yesterday's move was perp-driven — fourth impulse leg this week; a pullback inside the range would be normal. This is beta.