BTC: $80,658
├ 50MA: $73,219 ✅
├ 200MA: $70,535 ✅
├ Realized: $52,825 (MVRV 1.53)
├ STH cost basis: $71,208
├ LTH cost basis: $48,807
├ RSI (weekly): 57.9
├ IBIT cost basis: $81,637
├ MSTR cost basis: $75,385
├ Production cost: $86,586
├ BTC/Gold: 18.5 oz
└ Fear & Greed: 71 (Greed)
ETF 5d +6M$ / 20d +1762M$ · CME fwd 2/5 LONG (смешанно) · CLLD 1d -0.11
liq BTC 6m 0.26 3m 0.14 1m 0.38 7d 0.12 (C↓) | ETH 6m 0.05 3m 0.05 1m 0.15 7d 0.10 (A+↓) · int BTC 7d↓ ETH↓
CSP / CC(where selling puts / calls is structurally favourable)
Week 75000/85000 Month 68000/90000 Quarter 60000/100000
Weekly
Both boards run long gamma — spot sits right on the 80k gamma wall, with a max-weight liq cluster at 80,000 under it.
Weekly flip 73.8k is deep below price; weekly walls 85k call / 70k put, max pain 72k — but OI mass below spot alone doesn't pin, the gamma center is at 80k.
Session flow: 85k OI trimmed (−273) and 81k (−119), 79k added (+134) — the top of the week is being pared, not built.
Weekly charm reads negative (−$4.4M) — gross Σ charm·OI, sign reflects OI mass sitting below spot (only 42% above); no hedge-direction read.
IBIT lines up with BTC: flip 73.8k, cap 84.4k vs 85k, max pain ~72.9k; the one difference — IBIT's near put support sits higher, ~75.6k.
Total
Book-wide dealer delta +$6.3B, total GEX +$343M — long gamma across the stack.
Spot 80,658 holds above MA50 (73.2k), MA200 (70.5k) and STH cost basis (71.2k), just under IBIT basis (81.6k) and miner cost (86.6k).
F&G 71 (greed); DVOL 35 at the 5th percentile of the year — vol premium is thin.
Overall: market above all fast cost bases, structure calm, the fight is for the 80–81.6k node.
Week ahead (beta)
78 days of track. Honest check: yesterday's base case (80–83k consolidation, upward lean) is holding — 81,410 → 80,658, pullback inside the range; the 82.9k upside trigger didn't fire, the 81.6k IBIT-basis node wasn't held, spot is back at the 80k gamma wall.
Base case: 79,600–82,900 chop around 80k — long gamma, max-weight liq at 80,000/79,600 right under spot, liq 82,750 above; the weekly cap is 85k, though that strike was trimmed last session. The board prices ~2% odds of −10% by Friday — a deep flush isn't priced.
Upside trigger: reclaim and hold above 81.6k (IBIT basis + 81,566 zone) opens 82.75–82.85k, then the 85k wall.
Downside trigger: losing 79,600 points to liq 77.8k, deeper the 75.4–75.9k shelf (fresh zone 75,571 + liq 75,850 + MSTR basis).
Caveats: standing liq skews down (grade C — weak, unvalidated context), weekly OI builds went mostly below spot — conviction in continuation is low, this is beta.