BTC: $78,080
├ 50MA: $69,996 ✅
├ 200MA: $69,902 ✅
├ Realized: $52,778 (MVRV 1.48)
├ STH cost basis: $69,980
├ LTH cost basis: $48,918
├ RSI (weekly): 56.7
├ IBIT cost basis: $81,661
├ MSTR cost basis: $75,385
├ Production cost: $86,537
├ BTC/Gold: 17.7 oz
└ Fear & Greed: 69 (Greed)
ETF 5d +987M$ / 20d +3439M$ · CME fwd 1/5 LONG (mild long tilt) · CLLD 1d -0.08
liq BTC 6m 0.26 3m 0.14 1m 0.21 7d 0.39 (C↓) | ETH 6m 0.16 3m 0.16 1m 0.25 7d 0.28 (B↓) · int BTC 1m↓ ETH 1m↓
CSP / CC(where selling puts / calls is structurally favourable)
Week 73000/82000 Month 70000/85000 Quarter 60000/100000
Weekly
Dealers long gamma on both venues, weekly GEX +20.6M — a moderate cushion (vs +33M yesterday), swings get dampened; the weekly flip 77,016 sits just ~1.4% under spot — the regime boundary is close.
Sep 11 board: 81,000 call/gamma wall overhead, 73,000 put wall below, max pain 78,000 — spot sits right on the board's center a fourth straight day. The board keeps building both around and above price: 87% of session OI adds landed above spot (80.5k/78k/79k/78.5k).
Weekly charm +19.3M — the run's high: decay flow mildly supports price into Friday.
IBIT: same regime, but its weekly floor (put wall 78.6k) sits directly under price, max pain 76.8k; +102k OI on the session, 81% above spot. Level divergence, not regime.
Total
Full-book DEX +4.71B — dealer net delta strongly positive, hedges lean with the trend; the book's vega metric now reads as size only, no direction.
Spot 78,080 trades above realized (52.8k), the 50/200DMA (~70k), STH basis (70.0k) and MSTR basis (75.4k); overhead sit IBIT cost basis 81.7k and production cost 86.5k — a dense lid stacked on the 81–82k node.
Book-wide max pain 73k and flip 69.3k remain far below — price still runs ahead of total structure, though the weekly slice has caught up.
Fear & Greed 69 (greed), weekly RSI 56.7; DVOL mid-tercile — vol premium is neutral.
Week ahead (beta)
66 days of history. Honest check: the pullback runs a second day — 79,168 → 78,080; yesterday's downside trigger hasn't formally fired (the flip itself slid to 77.0k), the 76.5–82k corridor holds a twenty-first day, and spot sits exactly on the 77,750 liq (weight 100) and the 78k max pain.
Base case into the Sep 11 expiry (3 DTE): chop 76,500–81,000 centered on 78k — the board is centered at price, charm supportive, long gamma dampens swings; the board prices only ~0.7% odds of −10% by Friday — no deep flush implied.
Upside trigger: reclaiming 78.6–79k (liq) opens 80.25/81.15k, then the 81–82.85k node (81k call/gamma wall + IBIT basis 81.7k + zone 81,670 + liq 82,850).
Downside trigger: losing 77,750 and the 77.0k flip turns weekly gamma negative — a slide to the 76,000 liq (weight 100), then the 75.2k zone (MSTR basis) and the 73k put wall.
Uncertainty is moderate: the flip sits <1.5% under spot, the cushion is thinner than yesterday, and greed at 69 plus standing liq skew pointing down (grade C — context, not a signal) keep the tape shock-sensitive both ways.