BTC: $78,975
├ 50MA: $70,256 ✅
├ 200MA: $69,960 ✅
├ Realized: $52,760 (MVRV 1.50)
├ STH cost basis: $70,956
├ LTH cost basis: $48,818
├ RSI (weekly): 58.1
├ IBIT cost basis: $81,661
├ MSTR cost basis: $75,385
├ Production cost: $85,932
├ BTC/Gold: 17.9 oz
└ Fear & Greed: 66 (Greed)
ETF 5d +724M$ / 20d +3537M$ · CME fwd 1/5 LONG (mild long tilt) · CLLD 1d -0.57
liq BTC 6m 0.26 3m 0.14 1m 0.22 7d 0.57 (C↓) | ETH 6m 0.17 3m 0.17 1m 0.26 7d 0.38 (B↓) · int BTC 1m↓ ETH 1m↓
CSP / CC(where selling puts / calls is structurally favourable)
Week 73000/82000 Month 70000/85000 Quarter 60000/100000
Weekly
Long gamma into Friday expiry (2 DTE), weekly cushion +52M — dealers dampen moves, pinning in effect.
Weekly flip 77.1k; call wall 81k (also the gamma wall and top OI at 4.6k contracts), put wall 73k, max pain 78k — the board is centered right at spot.
Weekly charm +29.6M — time decay is supportive into Friday, pulling price toward the center.
Session flow built mostly above spot (66% of new OI): +200 at 80k, while 81k was trimmed (−208) — the cap is live but not growing.
IBIT agrees on the center (max pain 77.8k vs 78k), but its support sits closer — put wall right under spot at 78.7k, upside wall further out at 83.1k: the ETF book holds price tighter.
Total
Total-book dealer net delta +5.76B — hedging flows broadly supportive; no directional vanna read on the BTC book, vega mass (~26M) mostly reflects book size.
Spot trades above the 50/200 MAs (70.3k/70.0k), STH cost basis (71.0k) and realized price (52.8k) — trend structure is healthy; overhead sit IBIT cost basis 81.7k and miner production cost 85.9k.
Fear & Greed 66, weekly RSI 58 — warm but not stretched. DVOL 40 at the 43rd percentile — vol premium is mid-range, neutral regime.
Week ahead (beta)
67 days of track. Honest check: yesterday's upside trigger (reclaim of 78.6–79k) fired — 78,080 → 78,975; the 76.5–82k range holds for a 22nd day.
Base case: into Friday expiry (2 DTE) a 77–81k pin centered at 78k — long gamma, charm positive at its weekly high, options price ~0.1% odds of −10% by Friday. Post-expiry the monthly board is centered lower (put wall 70k, max pain 72k) — range may widen.
Upside trigger: acceptance above 79.8–80.4k opens the 81k call wall, then liq 81.15k/82.45k and the 81.9k node (IBIT basis).
Downside trigger: losing the 77.1k flip risks a slide to liq 75.85k and the 75.0–75.2k shelf.
Beta: pin into expiry is the base case, but the cushion is mid-sized and weekly structure resets Friday — low confidence beyond expiry.