BTC: $79,168
├ 50MA: $69,738 ✅
├ 200MA: $69,851 ✅
├ Realized: $52,779 (MVRV 1.50)
├ STH cost basis: $69,980
├ LTH cost basis: $48,918
├ RSI (weekly): 57.9
├ IBIT cost basis: $81,665
├ MSTR cost basis: $75,385
├ Production cost: $87,470
├ BTC/Gold: 18.0 oz
└ Fear & Greed: 71 (Greed)
ETF 5d +987M$ / 20d +3439M$ · CME fwd 1/5 LONG (mild long tilt) · CLLD 1d -1.00
liq BTC 6m 0.24 3m 0.11 1m 0.17 7d 0.33 (C↓) | ETH 6m 0.14 3m 0.15 1m 0.22 7d 0.28 (B↓) · int BTC 1m↓ ETH 1m↓
CSP / CC(where selling puts / calls is structurally favourable)
Week 75000/82000 Month 70000/85000 Quarter 60000/100000
Weekly
Dealers long gamma on both venues, weekly GEX +33M — the cushion rebuilt, swings get dampened; the weekly flip 77,472 sits just under spot — the regime boundary is close.
Sep 11 board: the call wall migrated down 82k → 81,000, now lined up with the gamma wall directly overhead; put wall 73,000 below, max pain 78,000 — centered at price a fourth straight day. And it's not leftovers: 81k was the session's biggest build (+1,815 OI), 79% of adds landed above spot.
Weekly charm +6.5M — decay flow keeps mildly supporting price.
IBIT agrees on regime but holds a farther lid (~87.7k), floor and max pain ~75.4k, with 83% of its adds above spot (83–88k) — the ETF book keeps stacking upside. Level divergence, not regime.
Total
Full-book DEX +5.67B — dealer net delta strongly positive, hedges lean with the trend; VEX +26.4M — a vol drop adds a hedge bid. Both constructive.
Spot 79,168 trades above realized (52.8k), the 50/200DMA (69.7/69.9k), STH basis (70.0k) and MSTR basis (75.4k); overhead sit IBIT cost basis 81.7k and production cost 87.5k — a dense lid stacked on the 81–82k node.
Book-wide max pain 73k and flip 69k remain far below — price still runs ahead of the total structure, though the weekly slice has caught up.
Fear & Greed 71 (greed), weekly RSI 57.9; DVOL in the low tercile — vol premium is thin.
Week ahead (beta)
65 days of history. Honest check: the upward lean paused — 79,768 → 79,168, a pullback inside the range; the 80,900/82,350 liq magnets remain unswept, the 76.5–82k corridor holds a twentieth day, and spot sits exactly on the 79,100 liq (weight 100).
Base case: chop 77,000–82,000 — the board is centered at price (max pain 78k), charm supportive, but the cap moved closer: the call wall migrated 82k → 81k, and that strike was the session's biggest build.
Upside trigger: acceptance above 81k opens the 81.8–82.85k node (zone 81,786 + IBIT basis 81.7k + liq 82,350/82,850); beyond it only production cost 87.5k remains.
Downside trigger: losing the 77.5k flip turns weekly gamma negative — a slide to the 78,300/76,000 liq, then the 75.0–75.4k shelf (MSTR basis). The board prices only ~1% odds of −10% by Sep 11 — no deep flush implied.
Uncertainty is moderate: the flip sits <2.5% under spot, greed at 71 and standing liq skew pointing down (grade C — context, not a signal) keep the tape shock-sensitive both ways.