BTC: $79,768
├ 50MA: $69,432 ✅
├ 200MA: $69,786 ✅
├ Realized: $52,760 (MVRV 1.51)
├ STH cost basis: $69,980
├ LTH cost basis: $48,918
├ RSI (weekly): 58.5
├ IBIT cost basis: $81,665
├ MSTR cost basis: $75,385
├ Production cost: $87,123
├ BTC/Gold: 18.0 oz
└ Fear & Greed: 73 (Greed)
ETF 5d +987M$ / 20d +3439M$ · CME fwd 1/5 LONG (mild long tilt) · CLLD 1d +0.49
liq BTC 6m 0.23 3m 0.10 1m 0.16 7d 0.32 (C↓) | ETH 6m 0.14 3m 0.14 1m 0.21 7d 0.34 (B↓) · int BTC 1m↓ ETH 1m↓
CSP / CC(where selling puts / calls is structurally favourable)
Week 75000/82000 Month 70000/85000 Quarter 60000/100000
Weekly
Dealers long gamma on both venues, weekly GEX +25.2M — a moderate cushion, swings get dampened; the weekly flip climbed to 77,781 and keeps trailing spot — the regime boundary is close.
Sep 11 board: 82,000 call/gamma wall overhead, 73,000 put wall below, max pain 78,000 — centered at price a third straight day. Character shift in the build: only ~16% of session OI adds landed above spot — 78k (+98), 74k and 79k got stacked, the board is laying a floor under price, not just a ceiling.
Weekly charm +3.0M — decay flow mildly supports price a seventh straight day.
IBIT agrees on regime but holds a farther lid (~88.3k), floor and max pain ~75.9k, with 83% of its adds above spot (84–88k) — the ETF book keeps stacking upside. Level divergence, not regime.
Total
Full-book DEX +6.03B — dealer net delta strongly positive, hedges lean with the trend; VEX +26.8M — a vol drop adds a hedge bid. Both constructive.
Spot 79,769 trades above realized (52.8k), the 50/200DMA (69.4k/69.8k), STH basis (70.0k) and MSTR basis (75.4k); overhead sit IBIT cost basis 81.7k and production cost 87.1k — a dense lid stacked on the 82k node.
Book-wide max pain 72k and flip 68.2k remain far below — price still runs ahead of the total structure, though the weekly slice has caught up.
Fear & Greed 73 (greed), weekly RSI 58.5; DVOL mid-tercile — vol premium is neutral.
Week ahead (beta)
64 days of history. Honest check: the upward lean is playing out a third straight day — 79,686 → 79,769; the 76.5–82k corridor holds a nineteenth day, with the 80,950/82,550 liq magnets still unswept right overhead (79,200 liq just under price).
Base case: chop 77,000–82,000 with an upward lean — the board is centered at price (max pain 78k), charm supportive, and for the first time this week OI adds landed below spot (78–79k): a floor is being laid under price.
Upside trigger: acceptance above 81k (liq 80,950) opens the 81.5–82.85k node (82k call/gamma wall + IBIT basis 81.7k + score-5 zone 81,472 + liq 82,550/82,850); beyond that only the 84.9k zone and production cost 87.1k remain.
Downside trigger: losing the 77.8k flip turns weekly gamma negative — a slide to the 76,000 liq, then the 75.0–75.2k shelf (fresh zone + MSTR basis). The board prices only ~1% odds of −10% by Sep 11 — no deep flush implied.
Uncertainty is moderate: the flip sits <2.5% under spot, greed at 73 and standing liq skew pointing down (grade C — context, not a signal) keep the tape shock-sensitive both ways.