BTC: $78,880
├ 50MA: $68,430 ✅
├ 200MA: $69,587 ✅
├ Realized: $52,680 (MVRV 1.50)
├ STH cost basis: $69,980
├ LTH cost basis: $48,918
├ RSI (weekly): 56.8
├ IBIT cost basis: $81,676
├ MSTR cost basis: $75,385
├ Production cost: $84,366
├ BTC/Gold: 17.7 oz
└ Fear & Greed: 65 (Greed)
ETF 5d +122M$ / 20d +2761M$ · CME fwd 1/5 LONG (mild long tilt) · CLLD 1d -0.90
liq BTC 6m 0.32 3m 0.19 1m 0.29 7d 0.73 (—) | ETH 6m 0.19 3m 0.19 1m 0.30 7d 0.87 (B↓) · int BTC 1m↓ ETH 7d↑ 1m↓
CSP / CC(where selling puts / calls is structurally favourable)
Week 75000/82000 Month 70000/85000 Quarter 60000/100000
Weekly
Dealers long gamma on both venues, weekly GEX +41M — the cushion rebuilt from yesterday's run-low (+7M), swings get dampened again. The weekly flip climbed to 76,873 — now right under spot: the regime boundary is close.
Weekly walls: 82,000 call/gamma wall overhead, 75,000 put wall below, max pain 72k deep down. Session OI −24.5k with unwinds at 82k/70k/75k/80k, yet 83% of fresh adds landed above spot — the top keeps getting built.
Weekly charm +69M — fifth straight positive day and the run's high: decay flow supports price into tomorrow's Sep 4 expiry.
IBIT agrees on regime but holds a closer lid — call wall 79.4k right above price, max pain 75.1k, and the session build laid a floor at 74.2–75.1k. Level divergence, not regime.
Total
Full-book DEX +5.76B — dealer net delta strongly positive, hedges lean with the trend; VEX +26.3M — a vol drop adds a hedge bid. Both constructive.
Spot 78,880 trades above realized (52.7k), the 50/200DMA (68.4k/69.6k), STH basis (70.0k) and MSTR basis (75.4k); overhead sit IBIT cost basis 81.7k and production cost 84.4k — a dense lid stacked on the 82k node.
Book-wide max pain 72k and flip 66.7k far below — price still runs ahead of structure, though the weekly slice has caught up.
Fear & Greed 65 (greed), weekly RSI 56.8; DVOL in the low tercile — vol premium is thin.
Week ahead (beta)
61 days of history. Honest check: yesterday's floor fight at 75.5–77k got bought — 77,189 → 78,880; the 78.7–79k reclaim trigger is firing right now, spot sits exactly on the 79,300 liq (weight 100). The 76.5–82k corridor holds a sixteenth day.
Base case into the Sep 4 expiry (1 DTE): chop 76.8–80.7k with a mild upward lean — the cushion rebuilt (+41M) and charm is at the run's high; acceptance above 79.3–80.25k opens 80.75k, then the 81.6–82.85k node (82k call/gamma wall + IBIT basis 81.7k + zone 81,838 + liq 82,850), with production cost 84.4k stacked above as a fundamental lid.
Downside trigger: losing 76.9–76.75k means losing the weekly flip — gamma turns negative below it and the move can accelerate to 76,000 liq, then the 75.0–75.2k shelf (put wall + fresh zone). The board prices only ~5% odds of closing below 76.8k by tomorrow — no flush implied.
Post-expiry the monthly board is stretched between max pain 70k and the 85k call wall — the range can widen.
Uncertainty is moderate: greed at 65 and the flip sitting close under price keep the tape shock-sensitive both ways.