BTC: $77,189
├ 50MA: $68,160 ✅
├ 200MA: $69,540 ✅
├ Realized: $52,647 (MVRV 1.47)
├ STH cost basis: $69,980
├ LTH cost basis: $48,918
├ RSI (weekly): 55.6
├ IBIT cost basis: $81,676
├ MSTR cost basis: $75,385
├ Production cost: $84,783
├ BTC/Gold: 17.5 oz
└ Fear & Greed: 63 (Greed)
ETF 5d +253M$ / 20d +2905M$ · CME fwd 1/5 LONG (mild long tilt) · CLLD 1d +0.48
liq BTC 6m 0.31 3m 0.18 1m 0.27 (—) | ETH 6m 0.17 3m 0.17 1m 0.25 (B↓) · int BTC 1m↓ ETH 1m↓
CSP / CC(where selling puts / calls is structurally favourable)
Week 75000/82000 Month 70000/85000 Quarter 60000/100000
Weekly
Dealers long gamma on both venues, but weekly GEX is just +7M — the thinnest cushion of the run (+25M yesterday): the pin is weak, swings can widen.
Key shift: the weekly flip climbed to 75,935, right under spot, stacked on the 75,000 put wall with the gamma wall there too — the 75–76k node is both the floor and the regime boundary. Overhead: 82,000 call wall; weekly max pain 71k deep below.
Weekly charm +1.6M — positive a fourth straight day: decay flow mildly supports price.
Session OI −24.5k with unwinds both up top (82k −6.3k, 80k −1.5k) and below (70k/75k), only ~15% of adds above spot — the upper node keeps thinning.
IBIT agrees on regime but is building a floor at 75.9k (+8.6k OI) and holds a closer lid at 79.4k vs BTC's 82k — level divergence, not regime.
Total
Full-book DEX +4.2B — dealer net delta strongly positive, hedges lean with the trend; VEX +25.6M — a vol drop adds a hedge bid. Both constructive.
Spot 77,189 trades above realized (52.6k), the 50/200DMA (68.2k/69.5k), STH basis (70.0k) and MSTR basis (75.4k); overhead sit IBIT cost basis 81.7k and production cost 84.8k — a dense lid.
Book-wide max pain 72k and flip 66.9k far below — price still runs ahead of structure, though the weekly slice has caught up.
Fear & Greed 63 — greed cooling (69 → 63), weekly RSI 55.6; DVOL in the low tercile — vol premium is thin.
Week ahead (beta)
60 days of history. Honest check: the 76.5–82k corridor holds a fifteenth day, but yesterday's downside trigger partially fired — 78,360 → 77,189, the 77,650/77,300 liq levels gave way and spot sits right on the 76,850 liq (weight 100); the 79k reclaim never confirmed.
Base case into the Sep 4 expiry (2 DTE): a fight for the 75.5–77k floor — the weekly flip 75,935, the 75k put wall, the fresh 75,240 zone and liq 75,550 all converge below; the +7M cushion is the run's thinnest, the pin is weak and swings can run wider.
Downside trigger: losing 75.9–75.5k means losing the weekly flip — gamma turns negative below it and the move can accelerate; the board prices only ~5% odds of closing below 74.2k by Friday and ~0.3% odds of −10% — no deep flush implied.
Upside trigger: reclaiming 78.7–79k (liq weight 100) opens 79.85–80.1k, then the 81.6–82.85k node (82k call/gamma wall + IBIT basis 81.7k + liq 82,850).
Uncertainty above normal: the cushion is at its minimum, standing liquidation skew points down (context, not a signal), while positive charm leans the other way.