BTC: $78,360
├ 50MA: $67,933 ✅
├ 200MA: $69,507 ✅
├ Realized: $52,672 (MVRV 1.49)
├ STH cost basis: $69,980
├ LTH cost basis: $48,918
├ RSI (weekly): 56.8
├ IBIT cost basis: $81,686
├ MSTR cost basis: $75,385
├ Production cost: $83,796
├ BTC/Gold: 17.9 oz
└ Fear & Greed: 69 (Greed)
ETF 5d +804M$ / 20d +3353M$ · CME fwd 1/5 LONG (mild long tilt) · CLLD 1d +0.83
liq BTC 6m 0.29 3m 0.15 1m 0.22 7d 0.56 (C↓) | ETH 6m 0.14 3m 0.14 1m 0.20 7d 0.58 (B↓) · int BTC 1m↓ ETH 1m↓
CSP / CC(where selling puts / calls is structurally favourable)
Week 75000/82000 Month 70000/85000 Quarter 60000/100000
Weekly
Dealers long gamma on both venues, but weekly GEX +24.8M — the cushion stays thin (+26M yesterday): the pin is loose, swings can widen.
Key change: the weekly flip climbed to 75,428 — first time this run it sits right under spot, stacked on the 75,000 put wall. That makes 75k a regime boundary, not just a floor. Overhead: 82,000 call/gamma wall; max pain 71k deep below.
Weekly charm +8.7M — third straight positive day and the run's high: decay flow now mildly supports price.
Session OI −23k with the unwind up top (82k −6.1k, 80k −1.5k) — the upper node keeps thinning, little fresh build on Deribit.
IBIT: same regime but building right around spot (76% of session adds above price, 79.4k/81.2k) — its weekly cap 79.4k sits directly overhead, a closer lid than BTC's 82k. Level divergence, not regime.
Total
Full-book DEX +4.5B — dealer net delta strongly positive, hedges lean with the trend; VEX +25M — a vol drop adds a hedge bid. Both constructive.
Spot 78,360 trades above realized (52.7k), the 50/200DMA (67.9k/69.5k), STH basis (70.0k) and MSTR basis (75.4k); overhead sit IBIT cost basis 81.7k and production cost 83.8k (back above price) — a dense lid stacked on the 82k node.
Book-wide max pain 72k and flip 66.8k far below — price still runs ahead of structure, though the weekly slice has caught up.
Fear & Greed 69 (greed), weekly RSI 56.8; DVOL in the low tercile — vol premium is thin.
Week ahead (beta)
59 days of history. Honest check: the 76.5–82k corridor holds a fourteenth day — 77,966 → 78,360, a bounce inside the range; yesterday's upside trigger (reclaim 78.8–79k) hasn't confirmed, spot sits just under it.
Base case into the Sep 4 expiry (3 DTE): chop 76,500–82,000 — charm supportive a third day but the cushion is thin, so swings can run wider; the cap is the 81.6–82.85k node (82k call/gamma wall + IBIT basis 81.7k + zone 81,843 + liq 81,600/82,850), now with production cost 83.8k stacked above.
Upside trigger: acceptance above 78.8–79k opens 79.85/80.75k liq, then the 81.6–82k node.
Downside trigger: losing the 77,650/77,300 liq slides price to the 76.6k zone, then the key 75,000 — put wall + 75.2k zone + 75,550 liq + the weekly flip all converge there: losing 75k flips the weekly gamma regime and could accelerate the move. The board prices only ~1% odds of −10% by Friday — no deep flush implied.
Uncertainty above normal: the cushion keeps thinning, standing liquidation skew points down (grade C — context, not a signal), and greed keeps the tape shock-sensitive.