BTC: $79,278
├ 50MA: $68,842 ✅
├ 200MA: $69,664 ✅
├ Realized: $52,715 (MVRV 1.50)
├ STH cost basis: $69,980
├ LTH cost basis: $48,918
├ RSI (weekly): 59.6
├ IBIT cost basis: $81,667
├ MSTR cost basis: $75,385
├ Production cost: $85,730
├ BTC/Gold: 17.9 oz
└ Fear & Greed: 74 (Greed)
ETF 5d +610M$ / 20d +3364M$ · CME fwd 1/5 LONG (mild long tilt) · CLLD 1d +0.58 · 1d driver: perp ↑
liq BTC 6m 0.20 3m 0.06 1m 0.09 7d 0.10 (A↓) | ETH 6m 0.12 3m 0.12 1m 0.20 7d 0.49 (B↓) · int BTC↓ ETH 1m↓
CSP / CC(where selling puts / calls is structurally favourable)
Week 75000/82000 Month 70000/85000 Quarter 60000/100000
Weekly
Dealers long gamma on both venues, weekly GEX +22M — a moderate cushion, swings get dampened; the weekly flip climbed to 77,243, right under spot — the regime boundary is close.
Fresh weekly board (Sep 11): 82,000 call/gamma wall overhead, 73,000 put wall below, max pain 78,000 — first time this run the board's center sits right at price rather than deep below.
Weekly charm +3.0M — decay flow mildly supports price.
The board is building up: 81% of the session's OI adds landed above spot (82k/84k/86k/88k).
IBIT agrees on regime but holds a farther lid — call wall ~88.3k, floor and max pain ~76k, with 87% of its adds above spot (84–88k). Level divergence, not regime.
Total
Full-book DEX +5.69B — dealer net delta strongly positive, hedges lean with the trend; VEX +27.3M — a vol drop adds a hedge bid. Both constructive.
Spot 79,278 trades above realized (52.7k), the 50/200DMA (68.8k/69.7k), STH basis (70.0k) and MSTR basis (75.4k); overhead sit IBIT cost basis 81.7k and production cost 85.7k — a dense lid stacked on the 82k node.
Book-wide max pain 73k and flip 67.9k sit far below — price still runs ahead of structure, though the weekly slice has caught up.
Fear & Greed 74 (greed), weekly RSI 59.6; DVOL in the low tercile — vol premium is thin.
Week ahead (beta)
62 days of history. Honest check: yesterday's reclaim trigger above 78.7–79k confirmed — 78,880 → 79,278, and the Sep 4 expiry passed without a flush, as the board priced; the 76.5–82k corridor holds a seventeenth day.
Base case: chop 77,000–82,000 with an upward lean — the weekly board is centered at price for the first time (max pain 78k), charm is supportive, and the 80,250/80,550 liq magnets (weight 100) sit right overhead; the cap is the 81.6–82.85k node (82k call/gamma wall + IBIT basis 81.7k + zone 82,184 + liq 82,850).
Upside trigger: acceptance above 80.25–80.55k opens 82k, then the 82,850 liq cluster; beyond that only the 85.6k zone and production cost 85.7k remain.
Downside trigger: losing the 77.2k flip turns weekly gamma negative — a slide to 76,050 liq, then the 75.0–75.55k shelf (fresh zone + liq 75,550 + MSTR basis). The board prices ~5% odds of closing below 73.5k by Sep 11 and ~2% odds of −10% — no deep flush implied.
Uncertainty is moderate: greed at 74, standing liquidation skew down strengthened to grade A (context, not a signal), and the dense 81.7–85.7k lid may cap another breakout attempt.