BTC: $78,940
├ 50MA: $65,832 ✅
├ 200MA: $69,171 ✅
├ Realized: $52,473 (MVRV 1.50)
├ STH cost basis: $68,842
├ LTH cost basis: $49,027
├ RSI (weekly): 58.7
├ IBIT cost basis: $81,726
├ MSTR cost basis: $75,385
├ Production cost: $72,706
├ BTC/Gold: 17.1 oz
└ Fear & Greed: 74 (Greed)
ETF 5d +1958M$ / 20d +2669M$ · CME fwd 0/5 LONG (все нейтральны) · CLLD 1d +0.86
liq BTC 6m 0.27 3m 0.06 1m 0.07 7d 0.18 (C↓) | ETH 6m 0.08 3m 0.08 1m 0.12 7d 0.18 (A↓) · int BTC↓ ETH↓
CSP / CC(where selling puts / calls is structurally favourable)
Week 74000/82000 Month 65000/85000 Quarter 60000/100000
Weekly
Dealers long gamma on both venues — moves get dampened; weekly flip 71,367 sits deep below, plenty of buffer.
Weekly walls: call wall 80,000 directly overhead, gamma wall 78,000 just under spot — price is wedged in the 78–80k node, and that's where the gamma mass lives: the pin here is real. Put wall 64k and max pain 65k remain deep below, but the board is rebuilding: weekly OI −79.5k on the session with unwinds at 65–75k while additions sit entirely above spot — the bottom is being cleared, the top built.
Weekly charm −0.53M — seventh straight negative day: decay flow keeps pressing toward the board's center into Aug 28, the main structural headwind.
IBIT agrees: its call/gamma wall at 79.4k sits right at price and keeps growing (+8.1k), with fresh OI stacked at far higher strikes — the ETF book is migrating up faster than Deribit; IBIT's book-wide flip 78.5k sits just under spot.
Total
Full-book DEX +48.6M — dealer net delta positive, hedges lean with the trend; VEX +0.10M — a vol drop adds a hedge bid. Both mildly constructive.
Spot 78,940 trades above realized (52.5k), the 50/200DMA (65.8k/69.2k), STH cost basis (68.8k), production cost (72.7k) and MSTR basis (75.4k); the nearest overhead marker is IBIT cost basis at 81.7k.
Book-wide max pain 68k and flip 71.6k are left far below — price still runs ahead of structure, though the weekly slice is catching up.
Fear & Greed 74 (greed), weekly RSI 58.7 — constructive but stretched.
Week ahead (beta)
52 days of history. Honest check: yesterday's call — a fight for the 79.85–80k node — is playing out: 79,308 → 78,940, a rejection at the wall without a break; the 76.5–80k range holds a seventh straight day.
Base case: chop 76,500–80,500 centered on the 78–80k node (gamma wall 78k + call wall 80k + liq 79.5/80.05k, weights 93–100); negative charm keeps dragging toward the board's center into Aug 28. The weekly board prices only ~1% odds of a −10% move by expiry — no deep flush implied.
Upside trigger: acceptance above 80.0–80.4k opens 81.1–81.9k (fresh zone 81,863 + IBIT basis 81,726), then liq 82,050/82,850.
Downside trigger: losing the 77,700 liq (weight 100) slides price to 76.5k, then the 74.4–75.0k shelf (liq 74,450 + zone 75,017 + MSTR basis).
Uncertainty stays above normal: greed at 74 keeps the tape shock-sensitive; standing liquidation skew points down (grade C) — risk context, not a signal.