BTC: $79,308
├ 50MA: $65,473 ✅
├ 200MA: $69,114 ✅
├ Realized: $52,421 (MVRV 1.51)
├ STH cost basis: $68,410
├ LTH cost basis: $49,033
├ RSI (weekly): 55.9
├ IBIT cost basis: $81,726
├ MSTR cost basis: $75,385
├ Production cost: $73,852
├ BTC/Gold: 17.0 oz
└ Fear & Greed: 73 (Greed)
ETF 5d +1918M$ / 20d +2320M$ · CME fwd 1/5 LONG (mild long tilt) · CLLD 1d -0.59
liq BTC 6m 0.31 3m 0.09 1m 0.14 7d 0.20 (C↓) | ETH 6m 0.06 3m 0.06 1m 0.10 7d 0.15 (A+↓) · int BTC↓ ETH↓
CSP / CC(where selling puts / calls is structurally favourable)
Week 74000/82000 Month 65000/90000 Quarter 60000/100000
Weekly
Dealers long gamma, weekly GEX +79M — the cushion holds, moves get dampened; weekly flip 65,535 sits deep below, regime firmly positive.
Key change: the weekly call wall migrated 75k → 80,000, with the gamma wall right there — first time this run that resistance and gamma mass sit directly overhead. Put wall 60k and max pain 68k remain deep below, but the board is rebuilding: weekly OI −76k on the session, with the unwind concentrated in lower strikes (65k/69k/72k/75k) — the bottom is being cleared, not built.
Weekly charm −44M — sixth straight negative day: decay flow keeps pressing toward the board's center, the main structural headwind into Aug 28.
IBIT aligned: cap ~80.3k vs 80k, same regime — and IBIT actively added OI above spot (78.5k/80.3k/82k): the ETF book is migrating up faster than Deribit.
Total
Full-book DEX +8.31B — the run's high: dealer net delta strongly positive, hedges lean with the trend; VEX +25.8M — a vol drop adds a hedge bid. Both constructive.
Spot 79,308 trades above realized (52.4k), the 50/200DMA (65.5k/69.1k), STH cost basis (68.4k), production cost (73.9k) and MSTR basis (75.4k); nearest overhead marker is IBIT cost basis at 81.7k.
Book-wide max pain 70k and flip 63.8k sit far below — price still runs ahead of structure, though the weekly slice is catching up.
Fear & Greed 73 (greed), weekly RSI 55.9 — constructive but stretched.
Week ahead (beta)
51 days of history. Honest check: the digestion call is playing out for a sixth straight day — 78,604 → 79,308, spot ran exactly into the 79.85–80k cluster as flagged; the weekly call wall finally migrated to price (75k → 80k).
Base case: a fight for the 79,850–80,000 node (liq weight 100 + gamma wall + fresh zone) inside a 76,500–80,000 chop; acceptance above opens 81.1–81.7k (fresh zone 81,114 + IBIT basis 81,726), then the 82,850 liq cluster. The weekly board prices only ~1% odds of a −10% move by Aug 28 — no deep flush implied.
Downside trigger: losing 78,400 liq slides price to 76,500/76,150, then the 74.9–75.2k shelf (monthly put wall 75k + MSTR basis + production cost 73.9k).
Against the breakout: negative weekly charm (−44M) and standing liquidation skew pointing down (grade C — risk context, not a signal). Uncertainty stays above normal: greed at 73 keeps the tape shock-sensitive either way.