BTC: $78,549
├ 50MA: $66,113 ✅
├ 200MA: $69,211 ✅
├ Realized: $52,548 (MVRV 1.49)
├ STH cost basis: $69,205
├ LTH cost basis: $49,008
├ RSI (weekly): 57.7
├ IBIT cost basis: $81,716
├ MSTR cost basis: $75,385
├ Production cost: $72,342
├ BTC/Gold: 17.0 oz
└ Fear & Greed: 65 (Greed)
ETF 5d +2083M$ / 20d +3033M$ · CME fwd 0/5 LONG (все нейтральны) · CLLD 1d +0.75
liq BTC 6m 0.29 3m 0.07 1m 0.13 7d 0.20 (C↓) | ETH 6m 0.11 3m 0.11 1m 0.17 7d 0.27 (B↓) · int BTC↓ ETH↓
CSP / CC(where selling puts / calls is structurally favourable)
Week 75000/82000 Month 70000/90000 Quarter 60000/100000
Weekly
Dealers long gamma on both venues, weekly GEX +75M — moves get dampened, and this pin is real: gamma wall 78,000 right under spot, call wall 80,000 overhead — price is wedged in the 78–80k node where the gamma mass actually lives.
Weekly flip 66,046, put wall 60k and max pain 69k remain deep below, but the board is rebuilding: ~82k OI unwound on the session, concentrated at 69–75k strikes, while net additions sit entirely above spot — bottom cleared, top built.
Weekly charm −60.6M — eighth straight negative day: decay flow keeps pressing toward the board's center into the Aug 28 expiry, the main structural headwind.
IBIT agrees: same regime, its call/gamma wall at 79.4k sits right at price and keeps building (fresh OI at 77.7–82k) — both venues are stacking the node around spot.
Total
Full-book DEX +7.31B — dealer net delta strongly positive, hedges lean with the trend; VEX +26.2M — a vol drop adds a hedge bid. Both constructive.
Spot 78,549 trades above realized (52.5k), the 50/200DMA (66.1k/69.2k), STH cost basis (69.2k), production cost (72.3k) and MSTR basis (75.4k); the nearest overhead marker is IBIT cost basis at 81.7k.
Book-wide max pain 70k and flip 64.5k sit far below — price still runs ahead of structure, though the weekly slice has caught up.
Fear & Greed 65 — greed cooling a third day (74 → 65), weekly RSI 57.7. Constructive but stretched.
Week ahead (beta)
53 days of history. Honest check: the 76.5–80.5k chop call is playing out for an eighth straight day — 78,940 → 78,549, the 80k wall rejected price again, dips keep getting bought.
Base case into the Aug 28 expiry (2 DTE): chop 76,100–80,250 centered on the 78–80k node — long gamma on both venues dampens swings, negative charm keeps dragging toward the board's center; the weekly board prices near-zero odds (~0.1%) of a −10% move by Friday.
Upside trigger: acceptance above 80.0–80.25k opens 81.55–82.1k (IBIT cost basis 81.7k nearby), then the 81,550 liq cluster.
Downside trigger: losing the 77,700 liq (weight 100) slides price to 76,100, then the 74.15–75.2k shelf (monthly put wall 75k + MSTR basis + liq 74,150).
Post-expiry the monthly board is stretched between max pain 70k and the 78k wall — the range can widen; greed and standing liquidation skew pointing down (grade C — context, not a signal) keep the tape shock-sensitive either way.