BTC: $63,601
├ 50MA: $63,700 🔻
├ 200MA: $69,174 🔻
├ Realized: $52,244 (MVRV 1.22)
├ STH cost basis: $67,241
├ LTH cost basis: $49,127
├ RSI (weekly): 39.6
├ IBIT cost basis: $81,998
├ MSTR cost basis: $75,385
├ Production cost: $140,055
├ BTC/Gold: 14.4 oz
└ Fear & Greed: 31 (Fear)
ETF 5d -390M$ / 20d +436M$ · CME fwd 1/5 LONG (mild long tilt) · CLLD 1d -0.64
CSP / CC(where selling puts / calls is structurally favourable)
Week 60000/67000 Month 60000/70000 Quarter 50000/75000
Weekly
Weekly gamma is back positive (GEX +4.0M vs −3.0M yesterday) — a loose pin into the Aug 21 expiry returns, moves get mildly dampened. Weekly flip 63,214, spot holds just above it.
Weekly walls: calls capped at 68k (largest OI), puts anchored at 60k. Max pain 63k sits just under spot — expiry pull keeps price nearby.
Weekly charm +2.4M — decay flow mildly supportive, holding price near max pain into the near expiry.
IBIT confirms: long gamma too, cap ~66.9k, floor ~61.6k, max pain ~63.4k — no divergence from the BTC book.
Total
Full-book DEX −461M — dealer hedges buy dips; VEX +14.9M — a vol drop adds a hedge bid. Both mildly supportive.
The total book is long gamma (GEX +39M) with the book-wide flip at 62,765 just below spot — the regime line; book-wide max pain 65k overhead.
Spot 63,601 trades above realized (52.2k), sits right on the 50DMA (63.7k), below STH cost basis (67.2k) and the 200DMA (69.2k) — mid battleground.
Fear & Greed 31, weekly RSI 39.6 — fearful tape against a constructive but thin structure.
Week ahead (beta)
43 days of history. Honest check: yesterday's upside trigger fired — the weekly flip 63.1k was reclaimed (63,008 → 63,601), spot ran exactly into the 50DMA/63.7k zone; weekly gamma printed positive for the first time since Aug 10.
Base case into Aug 21: chop 62,400–65,200 around max pain 63k — gamma and charm positive but weak, the pin is loose; liq magnets 64.6k/64.85k/65.2k and the 65.1k zone above, liq 62.65k/62.45k sitting right on the book-wide flip 62.77k below.
Upside trigger: acceptance above 63.7k (50DMA + zone) opens the 64.6–65.2k node, then 65.95k liq — upside above 64k unclaimed since Aug 11.
Downside trigger: losing 62.45–62.77k tips the entire book short gamma — sliding to 61.1k/60.5k, then the 60k put wall, the book's main defense.
Uncertainty stays above normal: the gamma cushion is back but thin — an external shock breaks the range either way.