BTC: $64,156
├ 50MA: $63,804 ✅
├ 200MA: $69,080 🔻
├ Realized: $52,240 (MVRV 1.23)
├ STH cost basis: $67,240
├ LTH cost basis: $49,116
├ RSI (weekly): 41.1
├ IBIT cost basis: $81,998
├ MSTR cost basis: $75,385
├ Production cost: $135,557
├ BTC/Gold: 14.6 oz
└ Fear & Greed: 41 (Fear)
ETF 5d -390M$ / 20d +436M$ · CME fwd 1/5 LONG (mild long tilt) · CLLD 1d -0.74
CSP / CC(where selling puts / calls is structurally favourable)
Week 60000/67000 Month 60000/70000 Quarter 50000/75000
Weekly
Dealers are long gamma, weekly GEX +17.8M — the fattest cushion this month: moves get dampened, the pin into the Aug 21 expiry is back. Weekly flip 63,315 — spot holds above it with real buffer for the first time in a week.
Weekly walls: calls capped at 67k (largest OI), puts anchored at 60k. Max pain 63.5k sits just below spot — expiry pull works down-to-center.
Weekly charm +4.4M — decay flow supportive: dealer hedging nudges price toward max pain from below, no pressure.
IBIT aligned on regime (long gamma) but its levels sit slightly lower — weekly center ~62.6k, floor 61.7k. Mild downward divergence, same regime.
Total
Full-book DEX −222M — dealer hedges buy dips; VEX +15.2M — a vol drop adds to that bid. Both mildly supportive.
Spot 64,156 trades above realized (52.2k) and the reclaimed 50DMA (63.8k), below STH cost basis (67.2k) and the 200DMA (69.1k) — mid battleground. Book-wide flip 63,034 below, book-wide max pain 65k overhead.
Fear & Greed 41 — fear easing (31 → 41 in a day), weekly RSI 41. Constructive structure with the gamma cushion finally restored.
Week ahead (beta)
44 days of history. Honest check: yesterday's upside trigger fired — acceptance above 63.7k (50DMA + zone) played out (63,601 → 64,156), weekly gamma jumped +4M → +17.8M, the cushion is back.
Base case into the Aug 21 expiry (3 DTE): 63,300–65,200 chop with an upward lean — positive gamma and charm pull toward the 64.65k liq magnet and the 65.1k zone; max pain 63.5k holds the floor.
Upside trigger: acceptance above 65.1–65.95k (zone + liq) opens 66.4k and the 67k weekly call wall (plus STH cost basis 67.2k) — upside above 66k unclaimed for three months.
Downside trigger: losing the 63.3k flip and the 63.6k zone slides price to 63.2k liq, then the book-wide flip 63,034 and the 62.45k/62k clusters.
Uncertainty is moderate: the pin is firmer than all of last week, but the horizon is short — post-expiry the monthly book is stretched between max pain 63k and the 72k wall, range can widen.