BTC: $63,008
├ 50MA: $63,627 🔻
├ 200MA: $69,281 🔻
├ Realized: $52,270 (MVRV 1.21)
├ STH cost basis: $67,241
├ LTH cost basis: $49,147
├ RSI (weekly): 39.0
├ IBIT cost basis: $81,998
├ MSTR cost basis: $75,385
├ Production cost: $81,289
├ BTC/Gold: 14.4 oz
└ Fear & Greed: 34 (Fear)
ETF 5d -390M$ / 20d +436M$ · CME fwd 1/5 LONG (mild long tilt) · CLLD 1d +0.21
CSP / CC(where selling puts / calls is structurally favourable)
Week 60000/67000 Month 60000/70000 Quarter 50000/75000
Weekly
Weekly gamma is negative (GEX −3.0M) against a still-long-gamma total book — moves into the Aug 21 expiry get amplified, no pin. Weekly flip 63,088 — spot sits right below it, zero buffer.
Weekly walls: calls capped at 68k (largest OI), puts anchored at 60k. Weekly max pain slid to 63k — right at spot: the pin came to price, not the other way around.
Weekly charm +2.5M — decay flow mildly supportive, holding price near max pain, but fragile against short weekly gamma.
IBIT levels match (floor 61.8k, cap 67.1k, max pain 63.6k), yet the ETF book runs short gamma — no cushion on that venue either.
Total
Full-book DEX −651M — dealer hedges buy dips; VEX +14.9M — a vol drop adds to that bid. Both mildly supportive.
The total book is still long gamma (GEX +15.5M) with the book-wide flip at 62,691, a few hundred dollars under spot — the regime line for the whole board.
Spot 63,008 holds above realized (52.3k) but trades below the 50DMA (63.6k), STH cost basis (67.2k), the 200DMA (69.3k) and production cost (81.3k) — mid battleground.
Fear & Greed 34, weekly RSI 39 — fearful tape against a thin but still constructive structure.
Week ahead (beta)
42 days of history. Honest check: yesterday's script held — the 62.4–62.8k cluster survived (62,996 → 63,008), a flat day; the 64k upside stays unclaimed, and weekly max pain has slid to price: 65k → 64k → 63k in two weeks — the pin is chasing spot, not vice versa.
Base case into Aug 21: nervous 61,800–64,850 chop centered on max pain 63k — weekly gamma negative, swings run hotter; liq magnets 64.85k/65.25k/65.65k above, liq 62.4k/61.8k right under price.
Downside trigger: losing 62.4–62.7k (book-wide flip + liq) tips the entire book short gamma — sliding through 61.8k to 61.1k/60.6k, then the 60k put wall, the book's main defense.
Upside trigger: reclaiming the 63.1k flip and the 50DMA/63.6k zone opens 64.85k/65.25k; the weekly board prices little above 66k.
Uncertainty is above normal: spot is wedged between the two flips and July's gamma cushion is gone — an external shock breaks the range either way.