BTC: $62,996
├ 50MA: $63,565 🔻
├ 200MA: $69,412 🔻
├ Realized: $52,262 (MVRV 1.21)
├ STH cost basis: $67,292
├ LTH cost basis: $49,136
├ RSI (weekly): 38.9
├ IBIT cost basis: $81,998
├ MSTR cost basis: $75,385
├ Production cost: $81,289
├ BTC/Gold: 14.4 oz
└ Fear & Greed: 34 (Fear)
ETF 5d -392M$ / 20d +392M$ · CME fwd 1/5 LONG (mild long tilt) · CLLD 1d +1.00
CSP / CC(where selling puts / calls is structurally favourable)
Week 60000/67000 Month 59000/70000 Quarter 50000/75000
Weekly
Total book is still long gamma, but weekly GEX is basically zero (−0.3M) — no pin into the Aug 21 expiry, moves don't get dampened.
Weekly flip 62,967 — spot sits exactly on it, no buffer. Weekly walls: calls capped at 68k (largest OI), puts anchored at 60k. Max pain 64k overhead — expiry pull works upward.
Weekly charm +3.0M — decay flow leans supportive toward max pain, but it's fragile against zero gamma.
IBIT levels match BTC (floor 61.8k, weekly cap 67.1k, max pain 63.6k), yet the ETF book runs short gamma overall — no cushion on that venue either.
Total
Full-book DEX −633M — dealer hedges buy dips; VEX +15.1M — a vol drop adds to that bid. Both mildly supportive.
The book-wide flip sits at 62,782, right under spot — the regime line for the whole board; below it dealers go short gamma. Book-wide max pain 65k overhead.
Spot 62,996 holds above realized (52.3k) but trades below the 50DMA (63.6k), STH cost basis (67.3k), the 200DMA (69.4k) and production cost (81.3k) — mid battleground.
Fear & Greed 34, weekly RSI 38.9 — fearful tape against a constructive but visibly thinning structure.
Week ahead (beta)
41 days of history. Honest check: yesterday's script played out — the 62.2–62.6k cluster held (62,574 → 62,996) and charm pulled price back to the weekly flip, as flagged; the 64k upside remains unclaimed.
Base case: nervous 61,800–64,850 chop — weekly gamma at zero, the pin is loose; if 62.4–62.8k holds (book-wide flip 62,782 + fresh zone 62,549), positive charm keeps the pull toward max pain 64k, then liq magnets 64.45k/64.85k.
Downside trigger: losing 62.4–62.6k tips the entire book short gamma — sliding through 62.15k/61.8k liq to the 61.7k zone, then 61k and the 60k put wall.
Upside trigger: reclaiming the 50DMA at 63.57k opens 64.0–64.85k; above that only 66k/67k.
Uncertainty is above normal: spot sits directly on the regime line and the gamma cushion that dampened July's tape is gone.