BTC: $62,574
├ 50MA: $63,502 🔻
├ 200MA: $69,542 🔻
├ Realized: $52,271 (MVRV 1.20)
├ STH cost basis: $67,372
├ LTH cost basis: $49,122
├ RSI (weekly): 38.7
├ IBIT cost basis: $81,998
├ MSTR cost basis: $75,385
├ Production cost: $76,505
├ BTC/Gold: 14.3 oz
└ Fear & Greed: 29 (Fear)
ETF 5d -234M$ / 20d +580M$ · CME fwd 2/5 LONG (смешанно) · CLLD 1d +0.97
CSP / CC(where selling puts / calls is structurally favourable)
Week 61000/67000 Month 56000/70000 Quarter 50000/75000
Weekly
Weekly gamma is negative (GEX −5.0M) — moves into the Aug 21 expiry get amplified, not dampened; no pin. Weekly flip 63,097, spot trades below it.
Weekly walls: calls capped at 68k (largest OI), puts anchored at 61k. Max pain 64k now sits ABOVE spot — expiry pull works upward.
Weekly charm +2.3M — decay flow mildly supportive toward max pain, but fragile against short gamma.
IBIT runs short gamma book-wide: floor 61,963, weekly cap 67,274, max pain 63,733 — levels match BTC, and the regime confirms: no cushion on either venue.
Total
Full-book DEX −788M — dealer hedges buy dips; VEX +14.9M — a vol drop adds a hedge bid. Both mildly supportive.
Total gamma is barely positive (+2.0M) with the book-wide flip at 62,595 — spot sits exactly on it: the regime line for the whole board; below it dealers go short gamma.
Spot 62,574 holds above realized (52.3k) but has lost the 50DMA (63.5k); below STH cost basis (67.4k), the 200DMA (69.5k) and production cost (76.5k).
Fear & Greed 29, weekly RSI 38.7 — fearful tape against a structure that weakened notably this week.
Week ahead (beta)
40 days of history. Honest check: yesterday's downside trigger fired exactly — 63.4–63.45k (50DMA + zone) broke (63,816 → 62,574), spot landed right on the book-wide flip 62,595 and the 62.6k/62.4k liq cluster, as flagged.
Base case: nervous 61,000–64,000 chop with hotter-than-usual swings — weekly gamma negative, total gamma at zero; if the 62.2–62.6k cluster holds, positive charm restores the pull toward max pain 64k and the 63.9k zone.
Downside trigger: losing 62.2–62.4k tips the entire book short gamma — acceleration to 61.1k/61k (weekly put wall + zone + liq), then 60.56k and the 60k put wall.
Upside trigger: reclaiming the weekly flip 63.1k and the 50DMA 63.45–63.5k opens 64.6k/64.9k.
Uncertainty is above normal: spot sits directly on the regime line and the gamma cushion that dampened July's tape is gone.