BTC: $63,816
├ 50MA: $63,399 ✅
├ 200MA: $69,787 🔻
├ Realized: $52,306 (MVRV 1.22)
├ STH cost basis: $67,439
├ LTH cost basis: $49,126
├ RSI (weekly): 39.7
├ IBIT cost basis: $81,998
├ MSTR cost basis: $75,385
├ Production cost: $76,505
├ BTC/Gold: 14.4 oz
└ Fear & Greed: 27 (Fear)
ETF 5d +320M$ / 20d +967M$ · CME fwd 2/5 LONG (смешанно) · CLLD 1d -0.62
CSP / CC(where selling puts / calls is structurally favourable)
Week 62000/68000 Month 60000/72000 Quarter 52000/78000
Weekly
Weekly gamma flipped negative for the first time (weekly GEX −2.2M vs a still-positive full book) — moves into the Aug 14 expiry get amplified, not dampened; the pin is broken. Spot 63,816 trades below the weekly flip 63,943.
Weekly walls: calls capped at 68k (largest OI), puts anchored at 60k. Max pain 64k now sits ABOVE spot — expiry pull works upward.
Weekly charm −1.2M — decay flow pressures price for a second day, no supportive drift into the near expiry.
IBIT is softer: still long gamma, cap ~67.1k, floor ~61.8k, max pain ~64.5k — a mild divergence from the BTC book, leaning stabilizing.
Total
Full-book DEX −239M — dealer hedges buy dips; VEX +15.9M — a vol drop adds to that bid. Both mildly supportive.
The total book is still long gamma (GEX +74M) with the book-wide flip at 62,890 below spot — the key regime line.
Spot 63,816 holds above realized (52.3k) and sits right on the 50DMA (63.4k), below STH cost basis (67.4k), the 200DMA (69.8k) and production cost (76.5k) — mid battleground.
Fear & Greed 27, weekly RSI 39.7 — fearful sentiment against a constructive but weakening structure.
Week ahead (beta)
39 days of history. Honest check: yesterday's downside trigger fired exactly — the 64.1k flip broke (64,175 → 63,816), spot slid onto the 63.75k liq magnet and the 63.45k zone (50DMA + flip); weekly gamma dissolved into negative territory, as flagged.
Base case into the Aug 14 expiry (2 DTE): nervous 62,200–64,850 chop with a downward lean — weekly gamma and charm are both negative, moves run hotter; liq ladder 62.2k/61.75k and the 61.9k zone below, max pain 64k and liq magnets 64.6k/64.85k above.
Downside trigger: losing 63.4–63.45k (50DMA + zone) opens the book-wide flip 62,890 — below it the entire book goes short gamma, accelerating to 62.2k/61.75k, then 61.1k/60.6k and the 60k put wall.
Upside trigger: reclaiming the weekly flip 63,943 restores the pull toward max pain 64k and the 64.6–64.85k node. Post-expiry the monthly book is stretched between max pain 63k and the 72k wall — range can widen either way.
Uncertainty is above normal: the gamma cushion that dampened moves all July is gone.