BTC: $64,175
├ 50MA: $63,389 ✅
├ 200MA: $69,917 🔻
├ Realized: $52,318 (MVRV 1.23)
├ STH cost basis: $67,504
├ LTH cost basis: $49,134
├ RSI (weekly): 40.0
├ IBIT cost basis: $82,017
├ MSTR cost basis: $75,385
├ Production cost: $76,082
├ BTC/Gold: 14.6 oz
└ Fear & Greed: 29 (Fear)
ETF 5d +520M$ / 20d +1132M$ · CME fwd 2/5 LONG (смешанно) · CLLD 1d -0.96
CSP / CC(where selling puts / calls is structurally favourable)
Week 62000/68000 Month 60000/72000 Quarter 52000/78000
Weekly
Dealers are technically long gamma, but weekly GEX has collapsed to nearly zero (+0.1M vs +13.5M yesterday) — the pin has all but dissolved, dampening is minimal.
Weekly flip 64,110 — spot sits exactly on it, no buffer left. Weekly walls: calls capped at 68k (largest OI), puts anchored at 60k. Max pain 64k right under spot.
Weekly charm −2.0M — decay flow flipped negative for the first time this week: it now pressures price toward/below max pain into the Aug 14 expiry.
IBIT aligned: long gamma too, cap ~67.2k, floor ~61.9k, max pain ~64.5k — no divergence from the BTC book.
Total
Full-book DEX −259M — dealer hedges buy dips; VEX +16M — a vol drop adds a hedge bid. Both mildly supportive.
Spot 64,175 trades above realized (52.3k) and the 50DMA (63.4k), below STH cost basis (67.5k), the 200DMA (69.9k) and production cost (76.1k) — mid battleground.
Book-wide max pain 65k just overhead. Fear & Greed 29, weekly RSI 40 — fearful sentiment against a constructive but weakening structure.
Week ahead (beta)
38 days of history. Honest check: yesterday's 63.8–66.0k chop is holding only by its lower edge — 64,525 → 64,175, spot slid exactly onto the weekly flip 64,110; the downside trigger hasn't fired yet, but the buffer is gone. Upside above 66k unclaimed for a twelfth week.
Base case into the Aug 14 expiry (3 DTE): nervous 63,250–65,300 chop with a downward lean — gamma is near zero, weekly charm turned negative for the first time, the pin is dissolving; liq ladder 63.75k/63.25k and the 63.4k zone (50DMA + flip) below, liq 64.85k and the spent 65.3k zone above.
Downside trigger: losing 64.1k slides price through 63.75k to 63.25–63.4k; below that, the 62.6k/62.2k clusters and the 61.9k zone.
Upside trigger: reclaiming 64.85k steadies the tape and restores the pull toward book-wide max pain 65k; the weekly board prices little above 66.5k.
Uncertainty is above normal — the gamma cushion that dampened moves all July is essentially gone; an external shock breaks the range either way.