BTC: $64,525
├ 50MA: $63,412 ✅
├ 200MA: $70,050 🔻
├ Realized: $52,313 (MVRV 1.23)
├ STH cost basis: $67,545
├ LTH cost basis: $49,142
├ RSI (weekly): 41.4
├ IBIT cost basis: $82,017
├ MSTR cost basis: $75,419
├ Production cost: $76,219
├ BTC/Gold: 15.0 oz
└ Fear & Greed: 30 (Fear)
ETF 5d +835M$ / 20d +852M$ · CME fwd 2/5 LONG (смешанно) · CLLD 1d +0.80
CSP / CC(where selling puts / calls is structurally favourable)
Week 62000/68000 Month 60000/72000 Quarter 52000/78000
Weekly
Dealers are long gamma (weekly GEX +13.5M) — moves get dampened, pinning regime, though the pin stays loose. Weekly flip 64,187 — spot holds right above it, minimal buffer.
Weekly walls: calls capped at 68k (largest OI), puts anchored at 60k. Max pain 64k just below spot — the Aug 14 expiry pulls toward it.
Weekly charm +0.98M — decay flow mildly supportive toward max pain, but far weaker than July.
IBIT confirms: long gamma too, cap ~68.4k, floor ~62.2k, max pain ~64.8k — ETF positioning aligned with the BTC book.
Total
Full-book DEX +54.3M — dealer net delta slightly positive, no heavy hedge skew; VEX +16.4M — a vol drop adds a hedge bid. Both mildly constructive.
Spot 64,525 trades above realized (52.3k) and the 50DMA (63.4k), below STH cost basis (67.5k), the 200DMA (70.1k) and production cost (76.2k) — mid battleground.
Book-wide max pain 66k just overhead. Fear & Greed 30, weekly RSI 41.4 — cautious sentiment against a constructive structure.
Week ahead (beta)
37 days of history. Honest check: yesterday's 64.0–66.3k chop technically held but only by its lower edge — 65,173 → 64,525, spot slid onto the 64.6k zone (flip + magnet + OI) and sits right above the weekly flip 64,187. The 66k+ upside remains unclaimed for an eleventh week.
Base case into Aug 14: chop 63.8–66.0k around max pain 64k — long gamma with weak charm, loose pin; liq magnets 64.85k/65.75k above, 63.9k liq and the 63.46k zone (50DMA + flip) below.
Downside trigger: losing the 64.2k flip slides price through 63.9k toward 63.46k/63.25k liq; below that, the 62k cluster and 61.75k.
Upside trigger: acceptance above 65.75k opens 67.4k (liq) and 67.5k (zone + STH cost basis), then the 68k weekly call wall.
Gamma is only moderate — conviction is medium, an external shock could break the range either way.