BTC: $65,173
├ 50MA: $63,372 ✅
├ 200MA: $70,172 🔻
├ Realized: $52,330 (MVRV 1.25)
├ STH cost basis: $67,537
├ LTH cost basis: $49,149
├ RSI (weekly): 40.7
├ IBIT cost basis: $82,048
├ MSTR cost basis: $75,419
├ Production cost: $74,848
├ BTC/Gold: 15.0 oz
└ Fear & Greed: 31 (Fear)
ETF 5d +835M$ / 20d +852M$ · CME fwd 2/5 LONG (смешанно) · CLLD 1d -0.93
CSP / CC(where selling puts / calls is structurally favourable)
Week 62000/68000 Month 60000/72000 Quarter 52000/78000
Weekly
Dealers are long gamma (weekly GEX +11M) — moves get dampened, pinning regime. Weekly flip 64,256, spot holds just above.
Weekly walls: calls capped at 68k (largest OI), puts anchored at 60k. Max pain 64k sits just below spot — the Aug 14 expiry pulls toward it.
Weekly charm +0.3M — decay flow mildly supportive toward max pain, but far weaker than July: the pin is loose.
IBIT confirms: long gamma too, cap ~67.9k, floor ~61.7k, max pain ~64.4k — ETF positioning aligned with the BTC book.
Total
Full-book DEX +38.5M — dealer net delta slightly positive, no heavy hedge skew; VEX +16.3M — a vol drop adds a hedge bid. Both mildly constructive.
Spot 65,173 trades above realized (52.3k) and the 50DMA (63.4k), below STH cost basis (67.5k), the 200DMA (70.2k) and production cost (74.8k) — mid battleground.
Book-wide max pain 66k just overhead. Fear & Greed 31, weekly RSI 40.7 — cautious sentiment against a constructive structure.
Week ahead (beta)
Honest check: yesterday's 63.8–66.3k chop played out (64,972 → 65,173) — spot crept up to the tested 65.1k zone with a liq magnet at 65.75k nearby; the 66k+ upside remains unclaimed for a tenth week.
Base case into Aug 14: chop 64.0–66.3k around max pain 64k — long gamma and weak charm cap trend, but the pin is loose; liq at 65.75k/67.25k above, the 64.2k zone (flip + magnet + max pain) right under spot.
Upside trigger: acceptance above 66.25–66.9k opens 67.25k (liq) and 67.8k (zone + STH cost basis 67.5k), then the 68k weekly call wall.
Downside trigger: losing flip 64.3k slides price through 63.9k liq to the 63.3k zone (50DMA); below that, 62.6k/62.15k clusters.
Gamma is only moderate — conviction is medium, an external shock could break the range.