BTC: $64,972
├ 50MA: $63,363 ✅
├ 200MA: $70,295 🔻
├ Realized: $52,325 (MVRV 1.24)
├ STH cost basis: $67,538
├ LTH cost basis: $49,141
├ RSI (weekly): 41.1
├ IBIT cost basis: $82,048
├ MSTR cost basis: $75,419
├ Production cost: $74,691
├ BTC/Gold: 15.0 oz
└ Fear & Greed: 30 (Fear)
ETF 5d +835M$ / 20d +852M$ · CME fwd 2/5 LONG (смешанно) · CLLD 1d -1.00
CSP / CC(where selling puts / calls is structurally favourable)
Week 62000/68000 Month 60000/72000 Quarter 52000/78000
Weekly
Dealers are long gamma (weekly GEX +11.2M) — moves get dampened, pinning regime. Weekly flip 64,278, spot holds just above.
Weekly walls: calls capped at 68k (largest OI), puts anchored at 60k. Max pain 64k sits just below spot — the Aug 14 expiry pulls toward it.
Weekly charm +0.09M — decay flow mildly supportive toward max pain, but far weaker than July: the pin is loose.
IBIT confirms: long gamma too, cap ~68k, floor ~61.8k, max pain ~64.4k — ETF book aligned with BTC.
Total
Full-book DEX +64.4M — dealer net delta slightly positive, no heavy hedge skew; VEX +16.5M — a vol drop adds a hedge bid. Both mildly constructive.
Spot 64,972 trades above realized (52.3k) and the 50DMA (63.4k), below STH cost basis (67.5k), the 200DMA (70.3k) and production cost (74.7k) — mid battleground.
Book-wide max pain 66k just overhead. Fear & Greed 30, weekly RSI 41 — cautious sentiment against a constructive structure.
Week ahead (beta)
Honest check: yesterday's 64–66k pin around max pain played out exactly (64,990 → 64,972), a flat day; the 66k+ upside remains unclaimed for a ninth week. Weekly max pain slid to 64k, flip rose to 64,278 — right under spot.
Base case into Aug 14: chop 63.8–66.3k — long gamma and weak charm cap trend; liq magnet 66.25k above, the strongest zone on the map at 63.8k (50DMA + flip + max pain) plus a liq ladder 64.45k/64.1k/63.8k below.
Upside trigger: acceptance above 66.25k opens 67.1–67.7k (gamma walls + STH cost basis 67.5k) and the 68k weekly call wall.
Downside trigger: losing flip 64.3k slides price through the liq ladder to 63.8k; below that, 62.05k (liq + zone).
Gamma is only moderate and the pin is looser than July's — an external shock could break the range; conviction is medium.