BTC: $75,955
├ 50MA: $81,843 🔻
├ 200MA: $73,229 ✅
├ Realized: $53,944 (MVRV 1.41)
├ STH cost basis: $75,796
├ LTH cost basis: $48,863
├ RSI (weekly): 49.2
├ IBIT cost basis: $81,739
├ MSTR cost basis: $75,385
├ Production cost: $83,179
├ BTC/Gold: 18.7 oz
└ Fear & Greed: 28 (Fear)
ETF 5d -1282M$ / 20d -1408M$ · CME fwd 1/4 LONG (mild long tilt) · CLLD 1d -0.10
CSP / CC(where selling puts / calls is structurally favourable)
Week 72000/81000 Month 70000/85000 Quarter 60000/90000
Weekly
Gamma: book is marginally positive; the weekly slice splits by venue — BTC negative (−12.5M), IBIT positive (+11.4M). Spot 75,955 sits between book flip 75.7k and weekly flip 76.4k: below 76.4k weekly moves get sharper, above — smoother.
Weekly walls: call 81k (8.3k OI, ceiling), put 74k — gamma mass sits there too, but 74k puts were unwound yesterday (−6). Max pain 78k = book max pain = monthly flip 78.2k.
Flow: weekly board barely grew (+6 OI), 88% of new OI above spot at 76–78k; the monthly is building 90–95k (+138, all upside). Weekly charm 13.0M, up a third day — OI sits above spot (65%).
IBIT: put 75.2k right under price, gamma/max pain 77.0k, call 79.6k, flip 74.3k below spot — ETF board in positive gamma, dampening. Regimes diverge for the week, magnets converge at 77–78k and book flips (75.4k vs 75.7k).
Total
Book DEX 160M — down from 197M yesterday and 110M on Nov 6, still ~13x below Nov 5 (2.1B): dealers' net hedge is small and gives no direction. Book flip 75.7k just under spot, max pain 78k; DVOL 40 mid-range — vol premium is average.
Week ahead (beta)
Day 127. Honest check: the 70–81k range holds — 75,946 → 75,955, third day stuck in 75.5–76k; base 'hold 75k' played out, the pull to 77–78k didn't: weekly flip 76.4k never taken. Nov 7 session flat, quiet. Only CPI was flagged yesterday — it's Nov 10, nothing to verify.
Base case into Nov 13: 70,000–81,000, core 73–78k — spot pinned between book flip 75.7k and weekly flip 76.4k, range compressing a third day into the event: the break out of 75.5–76.4k will be sharp either way. CPI Nov 10 is a macro event this week: vol in its hours runs multiples of normal — scale, not direction; range and strikes with extra room. Above 76.4k weekly gamma turns positive, moves soften, drift opens to 77.0k (IBIT gamma/max pain) and 78k (weekly & book max pain, monthly flip); below 75.7k the whole book is short gamma, moves sharpen, support 75.2k (IBIT put) and 74k where puts are being unwound. Base — 75k holds, a CPI wick, back to 76–78k by Friday; P(−10%) by Nov 13 ~3%, by month ~12%. Backdrop leans heavy: ETF outflows 5d/20d, weekly liqs long-side with a neutral day, CME slight long lean, DEX slipped; spot below MA50 and miner cost, above MA200 73.2k, sitting on STH cost 75.8k. Trend flat.
Downside trigger: a hold below 75.0k → 74k; break of 74k → 73.2k (MA200), 72k, 70.8k (fresh zone, quarterly flip 71.3k), 70k, then 68k and monthly 64–60k.
Upside trigger: a hold above 76.4k → 77.0k, 78k, 78.8k; 79.6k (IBIT call), 79.8k and 80–81k (quarterly gamma, call wall, MA50 81.8k) — weekly ceiling.
Alternative: CPI pops price over 78k on thin DEX for a 80–81k test; or a hold below 74k and MA200 test. Beta — high uncertainty.