BTC: $79,969
├ 50MA: $81,853 🔻
├ 200MA: $73,030 ✅
├ Realized: $53,530 (MVRV 1.49)
├ STH cost basis: $74,682
├ LTH cost basis: $48,723
├ RSI (weekly): 54.8
├ IBIT cost basis: $81,745
├ MSTR cost basis: $75,385
├ Production cost: $78,884
├ BTC/Gold: 19.9 oz
└ Fear & Greed: 50 (Neutral)
ETF 5d +360M$ / 20d -91M$ · CME fwd 0/4 LONG (все нейтральны) · CLLD 1d -0.59
CSP / CC(where selling puts / calls is structurally favourable)
Week 75000/85000 Month 70000/90000 Quarter 60000/100000
Weekly
Regime: total book still long gamma, but the Deribit weekly slice is negative again (−14.5M): spot 79.97k slipped BELOW the weekly flip 80.1k (sat on it yesterday) — sharper moves, fakeouts more likely. Weekly gamma mass at 80k — if it pins, it pins here.
Weekly walls 95k/70k are far tail, not working levels. Working: max pain 78k + 78.8k zone (score 6 fresh: book flip 78.5k, miner cost 78.9k, OI); above, 82k (MA50 + IBIT cost basis, score 5, spent) and 85k.
Weekly board is unwinding, not building: 78k and 81–82k cut, small add at 80.5k; 63% of OI above spot. Monthly builds calls at 84k and 95–97k.
Weekly charm +5.6M (+7.6M yesterday) — sign reflects OI mass sitting above spot.
IBIT: weekly flip 80.35k, spot below it too; but IBIT weekly gamma is positive vs Deribit negative — regimes diverge. IBIT put wall 77.9k, call wall 85.0k, max pain 83.2k vs 78k for BTC — magnets 5k apart. Total flips line up: 78.5k BTC / 77.8k IBIT.
Total
Book-wide DEX 1.94B — shrinking 4th day (3.29 → 2.41 → 2.31 → 1.94B): dealers' net-long hedge is draining. Total flip 78.5k and max pain 78k sit 2% under spot — long-gamma cushion is thin. Low vol regime (27th pct) — short-vol premium is lean; tail risk unchanged.
Week ahead (beta)
Day 114. Honest check: yesterday's 75–85k range holds — 80,348 → 79,969, but the base case 'chop 78.7–82k with a downward lean' is playing out as a 4th straight slide (81.9 → 80.7 → 80.3 → 80.0k): spot slipped under the weekly flip 80.1k onto 80k gamma; the downside trigger (hold below 80k) touched, not confirmed; the 78.7k node untested. Session 10/25 −0.9%, quiet. Coinbase discount (weaker next day) fired yesterday — it played out; FOMC ahead.
Base case: into 10/30, range 75,000–85,000, core 78–82k — a test of the 78.0–78.8k node (score 6 fresh: weekly and total max pain 78k, book flip 78.5k, miner cost 78.9k; 78k puts were cut, not built) that holds and mean-reverts to 80k. Deribit weekly gamma is negative with spot below flip — a sharp poke through 78k is possible, but inside a 75k frame; IBIT long gamma with 77.9k put wall dampens. FOMC Wed 10/28 — macro event this week, vol runs multiples of normal in its hours; scale, not direction — range and strikes with margin. P(−10% by 10/30) ~2% — no dump priced. Backdrop mixed: day's liqs are short squeezes (CLLD −0.59) vs week/month in long liqs; ETF 5d inflow, last day outflow; CME flat; DEX draining. Slow trend still up though spot is under MA50 — one caveat against the lean.
Down trigger: hold below 78k → 77.9k (IBIT put) and 75.0k (monthly put wall + quarterly max pain + MSTR cost, score 3 fresh), then 72k (quarterly puts building) and 70k.
Up trigger: reclaim 80.1–80.4k (both venues' flips) and 81–82k (monthly max pain, MA50 + IBIT cost) → 83.2k (IBIT max pain), 85k (IBIT call wall), 86–87k; 90k is the monthly call wall.
Alt: FOMC poke through 78k that reverts to 79–81k by Friday — 78k below and IBIT 83.2k above pull in opposite directions; the quarterly call wall 80k sits right on spot. Beta.