BTC: $82,298
├ 50MA: $81,229 ✅
├ 200MA: $72,252 ✅
├ Realized: $53,409 (MVRV 1.54)
├ STH cost basis: $74,327
├ LTH cost basis: $48,772
├ RSI (weekly): 59.1
├ IBIT cost basis: $81,733
├ MSTR cost basis: $75,385
├ Production cost: $74,398
├ BTC/Gold: 20.0 oz
└ Fear & Greed: 62 (Greed)
ETF 5d -600M$ / 20d +2352M$ · CME fwd 1/4 LONG (mild long tilt) · CLLD 1d +0.45
CSP / CC(where selling puts / calls is structurally favourable)
Week 78000/87000 Month 70000/95000 Quarter 60000/100000
Weekly
Deribit weekly gamma still negative (−$34.9M, sixth day), spot below the 84.0k flip — sharper intraday moves, no clean pin expected. Week walls: 87k calls (more OI at 90k above), 78k puts — fattest strike on the board; max pain 83k, gamma mass there too, the 83.1k zone (score 4) already worked off. Board isn't 'lagging': yesterday's build was 83.5–84k (77% of new OI above spot), i.e. positioning for a return to max pain, but the net add is tiny (+394). Weekly charm −$11.3M, deepest of the week: OI mass 76–83k sits at/below spot; no hedge-direction read from it.
IBIT: walls line up with BTC (87.1k above, 78.4k below) but the regime differs — weekly gamma positive (+$95M), gamma mass at 81.8k and 83.6k dampens moves; max pain 78.4k vs 83k on BTC. IBIT added 26.5k contracts, 74% below spot: big puts 62.7–67.9k (tail hedge) plus calls at 85.3k.
Total
Total-book DEX $3.27B, −$0.6B on the day (3.76→3.88→3.27B), lowest since Oct 8 — dealers' net delta is shrinking. Total flip 80.6k and max pain 80k sit below spot. Vol in the bottom tercile of the year — short vol pays thin, keep strikes wide.
Week ahead (beta)
102 days of history. Scorecard: yesterday's 79.5–88k range holds — 83,621 → 82,298, but spot slipped off 83k max pain for the first time in five days, resting on 81.9k (IBIT cost basis); no triggers hit. Yesterday's IV-shock read (back to 84–85k in 1–3 days) hasn't played out yet — we went down; Oct 13 session +1.6%, quiet.
Base case: CPI today — macro event, vol runs multiples higher in its hours, no directional read; week corridor to Oct 16 set at 78,000–87,000, core 80–84k. Deribit weekly gamma negative, spot below the 84k flip — an edge break can be sharp; IBIT's +gamma mass at 81.8k/83.6k dampens. Below: MA50 81.2k, 80.2k node (flip + gamma + max pain, score 3, fresh), 78.9k and 78k (put wall on both venues, IBIT max pain, the week's 5% tail). Above: 83k (max pain + gamma mass, built there), 84k flip, 85.3k, 87–87.8k (call walls + zone), 90k. Options price ~0.8% odds of −10% by Friday — a flush isn't priced. Backdrop: day in long liqs, week in short squeezes, ETF 5d outflow.
Upside caveat: IV rose three straight days beyond what price explains — after such runs price tends to drift up over 1–3 days; that's about a return to 83–84k post-CPI, not a weekly target. One component up, structure not against it — base: 80–85k chop with a mild upward tilt after the event.
Downside trigger: acceptance below 80k opens 78.9k/78k; break of 78k → 76k and the monthly frame (max pain 78k, put wall 70k, puts being built at 74–75k).
Upside trigger: reclaim 83–84k opens 85.3k and 87–87.8k; above 90k the week has no air.
Alternative: fake break of 80k on CPI, back into 81–84k by Friday — BTC max pain 83k and IBIT 78.4k pull different ways. 82–87k box is on day 18, spot at its lower edge. Beta.