BTC: $83,621
├ 50MA: $81,143 ✅
├ 200MA: $72,170 ✅
├ Realized: $53,357 (MVRV 1.57)
├ STH cost basis: $74,264
├ LTH cost basis: $48,752
├ RSI (weekly): 59.5
├ IBIT cost basis: $81,733
├ MSTR cost basis: $75,385
├ Production cost: $74,381
├ BTC/Gold: 20.0 oz
└ Fear & Greed: 57 (Greed)
ETF 5d -657M$ / 20d +1727M$ · CME fwd 1/4 LONG (mild long tilt) · CLLD 1d -0.11 · 1d driver: perp ↓
CSP / CC(where selling puts / calls is structurally favourable)
Week 78000/90000 Month 70000/95000 Quarter 60000/100000
Weekly
Gamma: book-wide positive, but the Deribit weekly slice is −$16.9M — spot sits below the 84.2k flip, intraday moves run hotter; IBIT's weekly is long gamma with mass at 83.0k, propping the 83k pin.
Weekly flip 84.2k. Walls: calls 90k, puts 78k — the put wall stepped down from 80k: 80k unwound, 78k added (+198), while 85.5k (+243) and 83k were built too; 48% of new OI sits above spot — board is growing both ways, not lagging. Max pain 83k = gamma wall 83k, spot's fifth day there. 59% of OI sits below price.
Weekly charm −$8.9M (gross, driven by OI below spot).
IBIT: flip 79.4k, max pain / put support 79.4k, call wall 88.3k, gamma 83.0k. Session: 79.4k unwound (−9.4k contracts), puts rolled to 76.8k, 86.5k added. Venues agree on the 83k center and the 88–90k cap; they split below: BTC 78k, IBIT's 79.4k support thinned, protection shifted to 76.8k.
Total
Book DEX $3.88B (3.76B yesterday, fifth day in 3.7–3.9B after 6.0B on Oct 6) — dealers net long delta, not growing; IBIT matches at $3.86B. Total flip 80.1k, max pain 79k — both below spot. Vol at 19th pct of the year: short-vol premium thin, regime is chop with wick-outs.
Week ahead (beta)
101 days of history. Honest check: yesterday's 79.5–88k range held — 83,020 → 83,621, fifth day sitting on 83k max pain, no triggers hit; Oct 12 session (−2.3%) was perp-led, the dip got bought. Only CPI was flagged yesterday — it's tomorrow, nothing to verify yet.
Base case: into Oct 16 expiry, 79,500–88,000 with an 81–85k core and a wick through one edge on Wednesday. CPI Oct 14 is a macro event — vol runs multiples of normal in its hours; range and weekly strikes set wide, no direction from it. Deribit weekly gamma negative, spot below the 84.2k flip — moves run hotter; IBIT long gamma at 83.0k holds the 83k pin. Below: 80k (zone 80.0k, MA50 81.1k, total flip 80.1k), the 79.3k node (flip + max pain + OI, score 3, fresh) and 78k (put wall, being built); above: flip 84.2k, 84.8k (gamma + magnet, fresh), 85.5–86.5k (both venues built there), 88.2k (zone + IBIT call wall) and 90k — the week's cap. −10% by Friday priced at ~0.9% — no flush priced. Backdrop: liquidations flat on the day, week leans long-liqs, ETF 5d outflow, DEX flat.
Upside caveat: implied vol rose three days running beyond what price explained — after such runs price tended higher over the next 1–3 days; that's about a return to 84–85k around CPI, not a weekly target. One component up, structure neutral — base stays chop with a slight upward lean near-term.
Downside trigger: acceptance below 80k opens 79.3k and 78k; a break of 78k targets 76k and the monthly frame (max pain 78k, put wall 70k, being built).
Upside trigger: reclaim above 84.2–84.8k opens 85.5–86.5k and 88.2k; above 90k the weekly board has no air.
Alternative: false break of 80k or 88k on CPI, back to 83k by Friday — BTC max pain 83k, IBIT's 79.4k pulls lower. The 82–87k shelf is in day 18, spot in its lower third. Beta.