BTC: $86,657
├ 50MA: $79,514 ✅
├ 200MA: $71,620 ✅
├ Realized: $53,158 (MVRV 1.63)
├ STH cost basis: $73,205
├ LTH cost basis: $48,768
├ RSI (weekly): 62.9
├ IBIT cost basis: $81,722
├ MSTR cost basis: $75,385
├ Production cost: $74,314
├ BTC/Gold: 20.9 oz
└ Fear & Greed: 70 (Greed)
ETF 5d +241M$ / 20d +2345M$ · CME fwd 1/4 LONG (mild long tilt) · CLLD 1d -0.48 · 1d driver: no aggressor ↑
CSP / CC(where selling puts / calls is structurally favourable)
Week 81000/90000 Month 70000/95000 Quarter 60000/100000
Weekly
Dealers long gamma; weekly GEX 23.9M vs 9.7M yesterday — cushion thickened, pin at 86k (gamma mass sits right on spot) is firmer.
Flip 84.6k, max pain 84k, call wall 90k, put wall 81k.
OI mass still below spot (only 33% above), but new OI is going up: 79% of the session's build landed above price — 89k +432, 90k +300, 86k +147, 75k puts unwound (−101). Not a lagging board — a board migrating with price.
Weekly charm −4.6M (−3.2M yesterday), sign unchanged.
IBIT (same 09.10 expiry): call wall 90.3k, support/max pain 84.9k, gamma 86.7k at spot, 61% of OI above. Venues agree on the 90k ceiling and flip 83.8–84.6k; they diverge on support — IBIT's sits 4k higher (84.9k vs 81k).
Total
Book-wide DEX +$6.12B vs +$5.35B yesterday and +$5.05B on 03.10 — back to the 02.10 level (+$6.22B) along with price: dealer delta hedge grows with the rally rather than fading it. Total flip 76.8k far below; vol at the 12th pct of the year — premium for sold options is thin.
Week ahead (beta)
93 days of history. Honest check: yesterday's base case (pin 83.5–87k around 85k) held at the upper edge — 85,213 → 86,657; the 86.8–87.8k upside trigger isn't taken yet, spot is sitting on it. No components fired yesterday — nothing to verify. The 04.10 session (+2.1%) came without taker imbalance — neither spot nor perps pushed.
Base case: into the 09.10 expiry a 84,500–90,000 range with a test of the 87.9–89.9k node — long gamma thickened, gamma mass 86k at spot, fresh zones 87.9k (score 2) and 89.9k (score 3: gamma + magnet + OI, next to IBIT's 90.3k call wall), and the session built exactly 89–90k. 90k is the weekly ceiling: BTC call wall plus monthly gamma mass. Board prices ~1% odds of −10% by Friday — no dump priced. Backdrop: short squeezes dominate liquidations (CLLD 7d −0.7), ETF inflow weak.
Upside trigger: acceptance above 87.9k opens 89.9–90k; above 90k the weekly frame has little air, next mass is 95k on the monthly.
Downside trigger: losing 86k and 85k returns price to flip 84.6k / max pain 84k (spent zone 84.1k); below 84k — 83k, then put wall 81k + zone 80.9k (score 3, also the weekly 5th percentile).
Alternative: a repeat of 02.10 — false break to 88–89k and back into 84–86k by Friday; max pain 84k and IBIT support 84.9k pull that way. The 82–86.5k shelf is on day 11, this is the second upside attempt; vol at the 12th pct of the year, structure gives direction only weakly — slight upward tilt (building above, DEX rising). Beta.