BTC: $84,040
├ 50MA: $77,696 ✅
├ 200MA: $71,353 ✅
├ Realized: $53,123 (MVRV 1.58)
├ STH cost basis: $72,876
├ LTH cost basis: $48,798
├ RSI (weekly): 60.2
├ IBIT cost basis: $81,707
├ MSTR cost basis: $75,385
├ Production cost: $74,378
├ BTC/Gold: 20.2 oz
└ Fear & Greed: 74 (Greed)
ETF 5d +274M$ / 20d +2884M$ · CME fwd 2/4 LONG (смешанно) · CLLD 1d +0.70
CSP / CC(where selling puts / calls is structurally favourable)
Week 82000/88000 Month 70000/95000 Quarter 60000/100000
Weekly
Positive gamma, weekly net GEX +$18M (vs +$21M yday) — dealers still damp moves, pin regime; gamma mass sits right on spot at 84k. Weekly flip 83.06k, max pain 83k, put wall 82k, call wall 88k; expires tomorrow (Oct 2).
Last session 60% of new OI went above spot: 87k (+244), 84.5k, 83.5k, 86k. Legacy mass still sits at 80–82k (82k = 3.3k OI), but fresh flow is building 84.5–87k — two different things.
Weekly charm −$3.0M vs −$9.1M yday: gross Σcharm·OI, sign tracks where OI sits vs spot, not dealer hedging.
IBIT (same Oct 2 expiry): flip 82.97k, put wall/max pain 82.97k, call wall 88.26k, gamma mass 83.85k — near 1:1 with BTC; added 7k contracts at 82.97k, unwound 91.8k/88.3k. Oct 16 bucket: 90% of OI growth above spot — 87.4k (+14.2k), 86.5k, 85.6k; Dec: 97.1k and 114.7k. Venues agree: 82–88k pin for the week, upside builds at 86–88k.
Total
Book-wide DEX $5.0B (yday $5.6B, Sep 28 $5.0B, peak Sep 22 $11.3B): dealers' net delta has settled at the week's range; IBIT $5.05B — same picture. Total flip 77.3k / max pain 79k sit far below spot. DVOL 35.7 at the 10th pct of the year: vol premium is thin, CSP/CC pay little.
Week ahead (beta)
Track record: 89 days. Honestly: yesterday's 82.5–86k pin holds — 84,386 → 84,040, spot mid-range, no triggers hit; day 7 of the chop, another quiet session (no taker driver), but liquidations tilted to longs (CLLD 1d +0.7 after −0.96).
Base case: into tomorrow's Oct 2 expiry, pin 82,000–85,300 — positive gamma, gamma mass 84k right on spot, max pain 83k and flip 83.1k just below; the weekly board prices ~0% for −10% by Friday — no dump priced. From next week the shelf loses its anchor: monthly frame median ~83.6k, core 79–88k, mass 90–95k above and 70k below, ~12% odds of −10% over the month. Fresh OI at 84.5–87k on BTC and 85.6–87.4k on IBIT (Oct 16) says a test of 86–88k is being prepared — but puts are being built at 82–83k too; structure sets no direction.
Upside trigger: hold above 85.3–85.9k (fresh zone 85,844) opens 86–88k (86k OI + 88k call wall + fresh zone 88,150); beyond — 90k (monthly gamma wall, though it was unwound −2,000 last session).
Downside trigger: loss of 83.0k (flip + max pain) leads to 82k (put wall + fresh zone 81,854 + IBIT support 82.97k); a break of 82k — to 79k (flip/max pain zone) and 77.7k (MA50 + max pain).
Caveats: day 7 of chop — breakout odds rising, but vol is at the 10th pct of the year and both boards build symmetrically; the alternative is a false break one way with a return into 82–85k on the new weekly board. Beta.